BMIE Market 01462

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,919 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,752 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±249 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,086 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,133 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$112,992 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,461 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,974 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±586 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$463,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,422 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01462
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+54.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+183.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 14–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.08) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01462. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.08, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.1	79	40%	+31.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.0	66	35%	+23.1
Market Momentum Score	66.5	67	25%	+16.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,919	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	112,992	88	40%	+35.1
Households (ACS)	4,752	74	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	13.3	57	35%	+20.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.3	55	25%	+13.9
Population (ACS)	11,919	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	112,992	88	20%	+17.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.3	71	50%	+35.7
10-year restaurant growth	13.3	57	30%	+17.1
20-year restaurant growth	54.6	69	20%	+13.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · Dessert 7 · American 4 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Pizza 2 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 9 · Dessert 8 · Coffee shop 7 · Bakery 6 · Casual dining 5 · Café 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Graffiti	Casual dining · Bar		113 Summer St	open
Asian Imperial Garden Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	308 Electric Ave	open
Bad Larry's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	1 Main St	open
Bedrock Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	324 Electric Ave	open
Blue Sky Golf & Sports Bar	Bar		5 Summer St Unit 1	open
Bootlegger Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		50 Massachusetts Ave	open
Cherry Hill Ice Cream Cherry Hill Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	826 Leominster Rd	open
Conrad's Drive-In Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · British / Irish pub food	835 Massachusetts Ave	open
Dippin' Donuts Dippin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	455 Massachusetts Ave	open
Donnelly's Tavern	Bar		43 Summer St	open
Dragonfly Garden Cafe	Café	Coffee	3 Lancaster Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	400 Electric Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	134 Leominster Shirley Rd Honey Farms	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	451 Massachusetts Ave Exxon Station	open
Elvisi's Hot Dog Palace	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	454 Electric Ave	open
Embers Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	84 Lakefront Ave	open
Il Forno Restaurant and Catering Il Forno	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	494 Electric Ave	open
Ixtapa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	308 Massachusetts Ave	open
Kabob-E-Licious	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	165 Massachusetts Ave	open
Lakeview Club	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		449 Whalom Rd	open
Lunenburg Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	324 Electric Ave	open
On the Rocks	Bar · Casual dining		96 Lake Front Ave	open
Otter Cove Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar			open
Presto Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	429 Electric Ave	open
Sean Patrick's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	494 Electric Ave	open
sissweetrdj	Dessert	Dessert	Worcester	open
Smokestack Roasters	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	39 Massachusetts Ave	open
Stella's	Coffee shop	Coffee	466 Electric Ave	open
Trader Duck's Lono Lounge	Bar		1030 Massachusetts Ave	open
Victor J Painting	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Sandwiches · Coffee	Pleasant st	open
White Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	177 Massachusetts Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	6	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	9	6	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	15	11	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	15	9	4	3	2	4	NAICS1997
1999	15	9	3	3	2	4	NAICS1997
2000	14	8	3	2	2	4	NAICS1997
2001	14	9	4	3	2	3	NAICS1997
2002	17	10	4	3	3	4	NAICS1997
2003	18	11	4	4	3	4	NAICS2002
2004	18	11	4	4	3	4	NAICS2002
2005	23	15	8	4	3	5	NAICS2002
2006	23	15	7	5	3	5	NAICS2002
2007	23	17	11	4	2	4	NAICS2002
2008	22	17	11	4	2	4	NAICS2007
2009	19	15	10	3	2	3	NAICS2007
2010	19	14	9	3	2	4	NAICS2007
2011	19	14	10	2	2	4	NAICS2007
2012	17	14	10	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	19	15	9	3	3	2	NAICS2012
2014	19	15	9	3	3	2	NAICS2012
2015	20	15	9	3	3	2	NAICS2012
2016	20	16	9	4	3	2	NAICS2012
2017	19	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	14	8	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	15	7	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	15	7	3	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	17	7	5	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01462. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01464	4.1 mi	8	2023
01453	4.8 mi	95	2023
01420	4.9 mi	65	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.