BMIE Market 01475

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,265 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±207 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,760 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±204 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,270 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,179 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$76,552 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,947 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,240 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±178 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$323,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,577 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	42.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01475
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-23.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-23.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-18.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.67) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01475. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.67, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.5	66	40%	+26.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.6	46	35%	+16.0
Market Momentum Score	13.2	13	25%	+3.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,265	71	40%	+28.5
Median household income (ACS)	76,552	57	40%	+23.0
Households (ACS)	3,760	70	20%	+14.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-23.5	13	35%	+4.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.7	62	25%	+15.4
Population (ACS)	10,265	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	76,552	57	20%	+11.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.8	14	50%	+6.9
10-year restaurant growth	-23.5	13	30%	+3.8
20-year restaurant growth	-23.5	13	20%	+2.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · Bakery 6 · American 4 · Dessert 4 · Pizza 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Asian 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 7 · Café 5 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Casual dining 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
C & S Pizza of Winchendon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	188 Central St	open
Charlies Redhouse Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)		683 River St	open
Chick's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		196 Pleasant St	open
Crusin 12 Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)		241 School St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	5 Central St Winchendon Plaza	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	93 Gardner Rd	open
Friend's Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	56 Central St	open
Gabby's Pizza Gabby's pizza Winchendon,MA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	255 Central St	open
Glen Caffe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	63 Glenallen St	open
Gourmet Donuts Gourmet Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	110 Spring St	open
Harbour Restaurant	Bar · Casual dining		463 Maple St	open
Hometown Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	314 Central St	open
Ikiaremy Sweets Bakery Restaurant & Café	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Bakery	314 Central St	open
Jen’s Homestead	Bakery · Food truck	Bakery	71 Glenallen St	open
Koi Asian Cuisine and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	302 Spring St	open
LeBlancs Masonary	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	760 River St	open
Lickity Splitz	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs · Burgers	231 Main St	open
Little Anthony's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	678 Spring St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	235 Spring St	open
Murdock Dairy Farm	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	62 Elmwood Rd	open
PJ's Slush Stop	Dessert		135 Front St	open
S. Muffins	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	37 Highland St	open
Sippin Serendipity	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	206 Central St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	29 Central St	open
The Sunshine Café	Café · Food truck	Coffee	5 Summer Dr	open
Toy Town Pub	Bar		28 Railroad St	open
Two Foxes Farm Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	60 Central St	open
Vinlozano Imports	Restaurant (service type not stated)		110 Front St	open
Winchendon History	Dessert		135 Front St	open
Zoe's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	435 Spring St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	22	16	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	15	10	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	17	11	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	16	13	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	21	18	9	6	3	2	NAICS1997
1999	21	18	9	6	3	2	NAICS1997
2000	21	19	9	6	4	2	NAICS1997
2001	18	16	8	5	3	2	NAICS1997
2002	20	18	7	8	3	2	NAICS1997
2003	19	17	8	8	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	18	16	7	8	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	21	17	8	8	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	19	16	9	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	17	14	10	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	17	15	10	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	17	15	10	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	21	19	12	5	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	22	19	12	5	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	20	17	10	4	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	21	17	10	4	3	2	NAICS2012
2014	21	17	9	4	4	2	NAICS2012
2015	21	18	9	4	5	2	NAICS2012
2016	22	18	10	3	5	2	NAICS2012
2017	23	19	10	4	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	16	6	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01475. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01436	4.8 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.