BMIE Market 01507

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,435 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,007 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±232 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,981 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,885 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$117,587 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,398 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,381 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±415 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$427,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,558 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	42.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01507
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-52.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.13) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01507. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.13, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.6	81	40%	+32.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.3	75	35%	+26.3
Market Momentum Score	38.7	39	25%	+9.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,435	75	40%	+30.0
Median household income (ACS)	117,587	89	40%	+35.8
Households (ACS)	5,007	74	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	35%	+20.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.0	88	25%	+22.1
Population (ACS)	13,435	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	117,587	89	20%	+17.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	30%	+17.4
20-year restaurant growth	-52.9	2	20%	+0.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

Dessert 6 · Italian 6 · Sandwiches 6 · American 5 · Bakery 5 · Pizza 4 · Breakfast 3 · Burgers 3 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Seafood 2 · Greek 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Quick service 7 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 6 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Charlton House Of Pizza & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	109 Masonic Home Rd	open
City Depot Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9 City Depot Rd	open
D'Angelo Grilled Sandwiches	Other	Sandwiches	166 Sturbridge Road, Mile Post 81, Mass. Turnpike E	open
D'Angelo Grilled Sandwiches D'Angelo Grilled Sandwiches	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza · Italian · American	166 Sturbridge Rd	open
Dad's	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	417 Worcester Rd	open
Dresser Hill Dairy Farm	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	290 Dresser Hill Rd	open
Dresser Hill Ice Cream Bar	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Seafood · Dessert	290 Dresser Hill Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	57 N Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	28 Worcester Rd	open
Elizabeth's Custom Bakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	17 McIntyre Rd	open
Francesco's Italian Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Italian · Dessert	29 Worcester Rd	open
Georges Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	9 City Depot Rd	open
King of KettleCorn	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	27 Worcester Rd	open
Kozy Corner Cafe	Café	Coffee · Italian · Breakfast	109 Masonic Home Rd #2	open
Let's Cake Decorate	Bakery	Bakery		open
Lina's Kitchen: Authentic Italian Cooking Classes & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	85 Burlingame Rd	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	Mass Pike I-90 E Mile Post 81	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	Mass Tpke / I-90 West (Service Plaza)	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	38 Worcester Rd	open
Papa Gino's Papa Gino's	Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza · Italian · American	45 J Hammond Rd	open
Patriot Chrysler	Restaurant (service type not stated)		288 Southbridge Rd	open
Perry’s Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	27 Worcester Rd	open
Quarter Keg Pub	Bar · Casual dining		443 Worcester Rd	open
Rider Tavern	Bar		255 Stafford St	open
Roadside Delights, LLC	Food truck		104 Fitzgerald Rd	open
Ronnie's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	208 City Depot Rd	open
St. Mary's Spiritual Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		74 Gould Rd	open
Tree House Brewing Company Tree House Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		129 Sturbridge Rd	open
Yankee Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	16 Worcester Rd	open
Zorbas Pizzeria Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	132 Sturbridge Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	15	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	15	15	3	11	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	17	17	3	12	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	17	17	3	12	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	19	18	3	14	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	17	17	4	12	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	14	5	8	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	15	13	6	5	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	13	11	6	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	12	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	10	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	11	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	10	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	10	7	5	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	9	6	4	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	10	8	6	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	10	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01507. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01537	4.0 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.