BMIE Market 01540

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,979 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±831 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,039 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±368 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,291 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,395 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,579 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,995 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,173 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±130 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$376,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,485 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01540
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+5.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+35.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+216.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 17–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.37) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	57 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01540. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.37, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.9	78	40%	+31.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.6	61	35%	+21.2
Market Momentum Score	57.3	57	25%	+14.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,979	72	40%	+28.9
Median household income (ACS)	110,579	87	40%	+34.7
Households (ACS)	4,039	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	5.6	50	35%	+17.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.3	45	25%	+11.2
Population (ACS)	10,979	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	110,579	87	20%	+17.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.6	62	50%	+31.0
10-year restaurant growth	5.6	50	30%	+15.1
20-year restaurant growth	35.7	56	20%	+11.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

American 6 · Pizza 6 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Italian 3 · Coffee 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 5 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Asia Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	390 Main St	open
Buffalo Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Carl's Oxford Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	291 Main St	open
Carlos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	448 Main St	open
Ce Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		85 Main St	open
Coffee Hop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		578 Main St	open
Dairy Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2 Sutton Ave	open
Days End Tavern	Bar		287 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	17 Sutton Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	123 Sutton Ave Xtramart	open
El Patron Corona	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	111 Sutton Ave	open
Fat n' Sassie Pastries	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	570 Main St	open
Half Baked and Fully Roasted	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	578 Main St	open
Happy Garden Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	211 Main St	open
Jess' Sweets & Treats	Bakery	Bakery	250 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	26 A Sutton Ave	open
Mkt Investments Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		211 Main St	open
N & J Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	315 Main St	open
New England Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4 Charlton St	open
Oxfords Casual Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	2 Millbury Blvd	open
P and D Oxford House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	440 Main St	open
Pizza Post	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	273 Main St	open
Pizza Post	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	273 Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	299 Main St PO Box 67	open
The CinnaLady	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	355 Main St	open
Tony Island Hot Dog Company	Quick service · Food truck	Hot dogs	240 Main St	open
Veranda Cafe Co Limited	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4 Charlton St	open
Whistle Stop Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	85 Main St	open
XPO Logistics, Inc. XPO	Restaurant (service type not stated)		122 Main St	open
Isador's Organics	Restaurant (service type not stated)		261 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	6	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	21	18	7	9	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	20	16	6	8	2	3	NAICS1997
2000	20	16	5	8	3	3	NAICS1997
2001	19	15	4	8	3	3	NAICS1997
2002	16	12	3	6	3	4	NAICS1997
2003	19	14	4	8	2	4	NAICS2002
2004	22	17	5	8	4	4	NAICS2002
2005	18	15	5	7	3	2	NAICS2002
2006	19	16	5	8	3	2	NAICS2002
2007	18	16	4	8	4	1	NAICS2002
2008	20	18	6	8	4	1	NAICS2007
2009	20	17	6	8	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	23	19	7	8	4	2	NAICS2007
2011	21	18	6	9	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	21	19	6	11	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	19	18	6	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	7	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	16	7	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	20	18	6	9	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	17	16	5	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	18	6	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	21	19	6	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	19	5	10	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	20	18	5	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	18	6	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	19	6	10	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01540. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01537	3.6 mi	5	2023
01570	4.5 mi	41	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.