BMIE Market 01564

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,183 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,282 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±271 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,808 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,965 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$129,063 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,765 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,699 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±161 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$498,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±47,747 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	30.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01564
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-23.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.32) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	19 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01564. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.32, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.9	78	40%	+31.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.4	52	35%	+18.4
Market Momentum Score	19.0	19	25%	+4.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,183	68	40%	+27.1
Median household income (ACS)	129,063	93	40%	+37.1
Households (ACS)	3,282	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-23.1	13	35%	+4.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.2	64	25%	+15.9
Population (ACS)	8,183	68	20%	+13.6
Median household income (ACS)	129,063	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 19 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	50%	+9.7
10-year restaurant growth	-23.1	13	30%	+3.8
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 5 · Pizza 4 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Breakfast 2 · Italian 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
9teen Sports Bar	Bar · Quick service · Café	Coffee	3 Runaway Brook Rd	open
B-Man's 140 Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	American	344 Redemption Rock Trail	open
Barbers Crossing North	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	175 Leominster Rd	open
Berube's Roadside Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	7 Chocksett Rd	open
Black Sheep Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		261 Leominster Rd	open
Cafe Fresh Bagel	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	167 Clinton Rd	open
Centre Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls · Italian	9 Main St	open
Davis BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	145 Redstone Hill Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	50 Leominster Rd	open
Emma's Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	37 Main St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		110 Leominster Rd	open
Over Easy Cafe	Café	Breakfast · Coffee · American	4 Johnson Rd	open
Rota Spring Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	117 Chace Hill Rd	open
Sterling Ice Cream Bar	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · American	167 Clinton Rd	open
Sterling Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	240 Worcester Rd	open
Sterling Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5 Main St	open
Sterling Village Pizza & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	239 Worcester Rd	open
Stillwater Ice Cream Parlor	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	220 Redemption Rock Trl	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	Rt 12	open
The Brick Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	27 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	14	11	9	1	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	13	12	10	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	13	12	9	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	12	9	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	12	8	2	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	7	1	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	12	11	6	1	4	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	7	2	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	6	2	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	16	14	7	3	4	1	NAICS2002
2008	15	12	3	5	4	2	NAICS2007
2009	14	12	3	4	5	1	NAICS2007
2010	17	14	4	4	6	1	NAICS2007
2011	17	14	4	5	5	1	NAICS2007
2012	14	11	4	3	4	2	NAICS2012
2013	17	13	4	5	4	3	NAICS2012
2014	15	13	4	5	4	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	5	5	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	4	4	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	11	3	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	11	3	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01564. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01561	4.5 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.