BMIE Market 02642

Barnstable County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,811 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,041 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±200 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,937 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,925 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$72,992 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,790 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	60.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,747 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±101 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$732,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±62,613 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02642
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+260.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+800.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 16–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.67) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	82 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02642. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.67, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	59.3	59	40%	+23.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.4	56	35%	+19.8
Market Momentum Score	82.4	82	25%	+20.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,811	63	40%	+25.1
Median household income (ACS)	72,992	52	40%	+20.7
Households (ACS)	3,041	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	31.0	19	25%	+4.8
Population (ACS)	5,811	63	20%	+12.6
Median household income (ACS)	72,992	52	20%	+10.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	260	96	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · Seafood 7 · American 6 · Dessert 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Pizza 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Korean 2 · Mexican 2 · African 1 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Coffee shop 7 · Bar 4 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Casual dining 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Catering 1 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arnold’s Lobster & Clam Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	3580 US-6	open
Basco Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	4205 State Hwy	open
Beanstock Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	165 Holmes Rd	open
Bellamy's Grill and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3800 State Hwy	open
Benefactor 96	Coffee shop	Coffee	93 Depot Rd	open
Boat Meadow River Marshes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
Box Lunch	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	4205 State Hwy #2	open
Brine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4100 State Hwy	open
Casa del Cabo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · American	3 Main St #32B	open
Dreamfyre Pole Fitness	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15B Lighthouse Ln	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	50 Brackett Rd	open
Fairway Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza · Breakfast	4295 US-6	open
First Encounter Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	220 Samoset Rd	open
Friendly Fisherman Restaurant and Fish Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4580 US-6	open
Good Eats On Rt 6	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches · Pizza	3620 State Hwy	open
Handle Smile	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	233 E Plaza Dr	open
Hole In One Bakery and Coffee Shop	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Dessert · Bakery · Coffee	4295 US-6	open
Hole In One Incorporated	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4295 State Hwy	open
Holmes Road	Bar		195 Holmes Rd	open
Joeys Joint & Food Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4100 State Hwy	open
Joey’s Joint	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4100 State Hwy	open
Karoo Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	African	3 Main St Ste 32b	open
Little Cod Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4580 State Hwy	open
Lobster Shanty	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	2905 State Hwy	open
Local Break	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4550 State Hwy	open
Lucky’s Corner Cafe	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	50 Brackett Rd	open
Mac's Market & Kitchen Mac's Market & Kitchen Eastham	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Seafood · Sandwiches	4680 State Hwy	open
Macs Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4680 State Hwy	open
Nauset Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4550 State Hwy	open
Palatable UL	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	213 W 9th St	open
Parker’s Shipwreck Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4940 State Hwy	open
Poit's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5270 State Hwy	open
Red Barn Pizza and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4180 US-6	open
Relax SJ	Coffee shop	Coffee	99 Stone Ct	open
Royal Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	4550 State Hwy	open
Sam's	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	100 Brackett Rd	open
Stewart's Seafood Restaurant & Tavern, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4380 State Hwy	open
The Handsome Oyster Co.	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2265 State Hwy	open
Twofive Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3620 State Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	6	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	14	6	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	15	8	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	15	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	18	9	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	16	9	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	18	11	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02642. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02663	3.9 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.