BMIE Market 02653

Barnstable County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,443 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±49 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,158 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,911 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,303 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$102,813 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,233 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	64.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,502 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±703 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$960,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±86,066 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	29 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02653
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	59.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-17.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-29.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+3.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 21–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.9 per year, r² 0.74) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	14 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02653. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.74, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.3	72	40%	+28.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37.4	37	35%	+13.1
Market Momentum Score	14.2	14	25%	+3.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,443	64	40%	+25.8
Median household income (ACS)	102,813	83	40%	+33.1
Households (ACS)	3,158	68	20%	+13.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-17.1	15	35%	+5.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	45.0	11	25%	+2.8
Population (ACS)	6,443	64	20%	+12.9
Median household income (ACS)	102,813	83	20%	+16.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.7	16	50%	+7.8
10-year restaurant growth	-17.1	15	30%	+4.4
20-year restaurant growth	-29.3	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (72)

By cuisine

American 14 · Seafood 11 · Coffee 9 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 6 · Asian 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Burgers 3 · Italian 3 · Japanese 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Pizza 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Brazilian 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 49 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 10 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 7 · Café 7 · Food truck 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Fools	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Sandwiches	87 RT-6A	open
Abba	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	89 Old Colony Way	open
Abroad	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		89 Old Colony Way	open
Academy Ocean Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2 Academy Pl	open
Andale on Wheels	Food truck		22 Main St	open
Ardath's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	200 Skaket Beach Rd	open
Bangkok Thai Cuisine Bangkok Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	46 MA-6A	open
Beacon Room	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	23 West Rd	open
Big Dog's BBQ	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	191 RT-6A	open
Cape Cod Lobster Claw, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		42 Rt 6A	open
Capeside Kitchen Beach Patrol Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	250 Beach Rd	open
Captain Cass Rock Harbor Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	117 Rock Harbor Rd	open
Captain Linnell House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	137 Skaket Beach Rd	open
Captain's Choice, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18 Old Colony Way	open
Cibo Italian Kitchen & Market	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Italian · Sandwiches	15 Cove Rd	open
Cooke's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1 S Orleans Rd	open
Corner Store Corner Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Sandwiches · Latin American (other)	54 Main St	open
Cottage Street Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5 Cottage St	open
Cottontail Cottages	Dessert	Dessert	170 Beach Rd	open
Dancing Spoons Food Truck & Catering - Cape Cod	Food truck · Catering	American	116 MA-6A	open
Double Dragon Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Hawaiian / Pacific · Asian	59 MA-6A	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	136 Cranberry Highway Orleans Shopping Center #A1	open
Emack & Bolio's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	80 Cranberry Hwy 6A	open
Four Mermaids Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5 Beach Rd	open
Guapo's Tortilla Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	136 Massachusetts 6A	open
Hearth N Kettle Resturants	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9 West Rd	open
Hog Island Beer Co.	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		28 West Rd	open
Hole In One Breakfast & Lunch	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Breakfast	98 MA-6A	open
Homeport Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	55 Main St	open
Hot Chocolate Sparrow	Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee	5 Old Colony Way	open
Hunan Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	225 Rt 6A	open
Ice Cream Cafe	Dessert · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	5 S Orleans Rd	open
Izzo’s Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		180 MA-6A,	open
Jo Mama's	Bakery · Coffee shop	Bakery · Coffee	125 MA-6A	open
La Bella Vita Kitchen and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	2 Academy Pl	open
Land Ho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	38 Main Street and, MA-6A	open
Las Chidas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	34 RT-6A	open
Liam's at Nauset Beach	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	Nauset Beach	open
Lost Dog Pub Orleans	Casual dining · Bar		63 MA-6A	open
Mahoney's Atlantic Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	28 Main St	open
Mandy's Cape Creamery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	14 Canal Rd	open
Marshside Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		28 Bridge Rd	open
Nauset Beach Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	222 Main St	open
Nauset Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	56 Main St	open
Navillus Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		136 RT-6A	open
Orleans Public House	Bar		15 Cove Rd	open
Papa Gino's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	Rt. 6A, Cranberry Cove Plaze	open
Papa Gino's Papa Gino's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	16 MA-6A	open
Rock Harbor Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	18 Old Colony Way	open
Sir Cricket's Fish & Chips	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · British / Irish pub food	38 RT-6A	open
South Orleans Rowing Club	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2110 Cranberry Cove Plaza	open
Sunbird Cape Cod	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	85 RT-6A	open
Sundae School Ice Cream Smitty's Ice Cream	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	210 Main St	open
Surfside Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	18 Old Colony Way	open
Ten Yen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	56 Main St Unit a	open
The Barley Neck	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		5 Beach Rd	open
The Big Squeeze	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Juice / smoothies	15 Main St	open
the knack Orleans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Hot dogs · Burgers	5 MA-6A	open
The Noodle Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	58 Main St	open
The Optimal Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian	185 Main St	open
The Rail	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	222 Main St	open
Toast To The Coast	Café	Coffee	222 Main Street	open
Town Cove Tap House	Bar		22A Main St	open
vers	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15 Cove Rd	open
Viv's Kitchen & Juice Bar Viv's Kitchen	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Brazilian	130 MA-6A	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	15 Canal Road	open
West Road Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		23 West Rd # 0	open
Yardarm Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		48 S Orleans Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	9 West Rd #6	open
Rich Associates Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5 Locust Rd	closed
The Local Scoop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	34 Rt 6A	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	29	28	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	26	25	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	25	24	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	33	33	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	38	37	23	9	5	—	NAICS1997
1999	37	36	23	8	5	—	NAICS1997
2000	37	35	23	7	5	—	NAICS1997
2001	36	34	21	8	5	—	NAICS1997
2002	39	38	25	8	5	—	NAICS1997
2003	44	41	26	7	8	—	NAICS2002
2004	42	38	22	8	8	—	NAICS2002
2005	37	34	18	8	8	—	NAICS2002
2006	37	34	18	8	8	—	NAICS2002
2007	36	34	18	6	10	—	NAICS2002
2008	37	36	20	5	11	—	NAICS2007
2009	39	38	22	6	10	—	NAICS2007
2010	36	35	19	6	10	—	NAICS2007
2011	36	35	19	7	9	—	NAICS2007
2012	37	36	20	7	9	—	NAICS2012
2013	36	35	18	8	9	—	NAICS2012
2014	38	37	19	9	9	—	NAICS2012
2015	41	40	19	11	10	—	NAICS2012
2016	38	37	18	11	8	—	NAICS2012
2017	37	36	18	11	7	—	NAICS2017
2018	35	34	16	11	7	—	NAICS2017
2019	35	34	16	10	8	—	NAICS2017
2020	32	32	15	10	7	—	NAICS2017
2021	33	32	15	10	7	—	NAICS2017
2022	29	28	15	8	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	29	16	8	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02653. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02643	2.3 mi	3	2022
02650	4.7 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.