BMIE Market 02830

Providence County, Rhode Island · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,637 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±992 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,630 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±407 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,976 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,444 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,111 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,302 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,096 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$408,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,428 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02830
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+83.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+175.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 12–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02830. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Rhode Island and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 71, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.2	75	40%	+30.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69.5	70	35%	+24.3
Market Momentum Score	48.3	48	25%	+12.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,637	65	40%	+25.9
Median household income (ACS)	121,111	91	40%	+36.3
Households (ACS)	2,630	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	35%	+26.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.6	47	25%	+11.8
Population (ACS)	6,637	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	121,111	91	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	30%	+22.8
20-year restaurant growth	83.3	78	20%	+15.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

American 4 · Italian 4 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Dessert 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Breakfast 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Café 3 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Dev's Tavern	Bar		341 Chapel St	open
Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	1 Harrisville Main St	open
Elite Pizza & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	Rhode Island 102, 1452 Broncos Hwy	open
Excellent Breakfast	Casual dining	American	218 Harrisville Main St	open
Johnny's Victory Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	2731 Victory Hwy	open
New Rhode Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1452 Broncos Hwy	open
Niko's Pizza House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	216 Harrisville Main St	open
Smiling Moose Organic Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	255 Hill Rd	open
The Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	459 Chapel St	open
Toti's Tavern	Bar	Italian	8 Callahan School St	open
Two Papas Biscotti Company	Dessert	Dessert · Italian	206 Jefferson Rd	open
Uncle Ronnie's Red Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		2692 Victory Hwy	open
Waterfall Cafe and Martini Bar	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	35 East Ave	open
Western Hotel & Pizza &pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	610 Douglas Turnpike	open
Wright's Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	84 Inman Rd	open
Chapman’s Food & Drink	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	1950 Broncos Hwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	7	5	4	—	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	4	—	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	7	5	4	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	5	3	3	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	6	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	9	6	6	—	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	6	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	11	8	6	2	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	12	9	7	2	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	11	8	6	1	1	3	NAICS2002
2008	12	8	6	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	12	8	6	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	12	8	5	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	14	11	8	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	10	8	6	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	11	8	6	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	12	9	6	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	13	10	6	2	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	14	11	7	2	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	14	11	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	12	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	12	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	12	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	10	6	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	16	12	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	11	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02830. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02858	0.9 mi	—
02826	0.9 mi	3	2017
02839	2.2 mi	1	2016
02876	4.0 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.