BMIE Market 02859

Providence County, Rhode Island · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,018 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±825 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,301 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±256 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,738 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,675 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$124,592 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,701 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,394 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±458 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$385,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,754 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	27.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02859
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-16.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 1–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.51) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	10 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02859. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.51, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Rhode Island and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 71, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.5	76	40%	+30.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.0	56	35%	+19.6
Market Momentum Score	9.8	10	25%	+2.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,018	66	40%	+26.2
Median household income (ACS)	124,592	92	40%	+36.7
Households (ACS)	2,301	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	35%	+3.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.1	84	25%	+21.0
Population (ACS)	7,018	66	20%	+13.1
Median household income (ACS)	124,592	92	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 10 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-28.6	9	50%	+4.6
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	30%	+3.1
20-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

Coffee 3 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Dessert 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abby's Country Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1180 S Main St	open
Bravo Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		75 Pascoag Main St	open
Cow's Tail Deli And Creamery	Other	Sandwiches	18 High St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1 S Main St	open
Elayna's	Bar		88 Pascoag Main St	open
Galloway's Catering and Prepared Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		295 Buck Hill Rd	open
George's Pizza 'N Pub	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	60 Pascoag Main St	open
James Davidge Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		63 Grove St	open
Mark Murphy Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		60 Pascoag Main St	open
New Leaf Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	77 Pascoag Main St	open
News Star	Restaurant (service type not stated)		170 Pascoag Main St	open
Olympia Famous Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	140 Pascoag Main St	open
Pascoag Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	150 Pascoag Main St	open
Serios Pizzarama And Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		405 Church St	open
Spritzers	Bar · Casual dining		63 Grove St	open
Sweet P’s Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	104 Church St	open
T & K Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		140 Pascoag Main St	open
Thai Wok Street Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	98 Pascoag Main St	open
Thai Royal Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	98 Pascoag Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	11	8	6	1	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	11	9	6	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	3	3	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	3	3	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	10	6	3	2	1	3	NAICS2002
2008	11	7	3	3	1	3	NAICS2007
2009	12	8	4	3	1	3	NAICS2007
2010	13	9	5	3	1	3	NAICS2007
2011	12	8	4	3	1	3	NAICS2007
2012	11	7	5	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	11	7	5	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	14	9	5	4	—	3	NAICS2012
2015	13	9	5	3	1	3	NAICS2012
2016	9	6	2	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	10	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	7	3	3	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	10	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02859. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06277	4.4 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.