BMIE Market 02921

Providence County, Rhode Island · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,149 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,110 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,613 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±428 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,361 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,506 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$147,204 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,413 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,411 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±218 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$535,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,873 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02921
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+80.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.32) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	45 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02921. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.32, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Rhode Island and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 71, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.4	82	40%	+32.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.3	74	35%	+26.0
Market Momentum Score	44.8	45	25%	+11.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,149	74	40%	+29.4
Median household income (ACS)	147,204	96	40%	+38.3
Households (ACS)	4,613	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.4	83	25%	+20.7
Population (ACS)	12,149	74	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	147,204	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · American 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Japanese 1 · Pizza 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Other 2 · Quick service 2 · Bar 1 · Brewery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
ajisen Asian cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1800 Plainfield Pike	open
Andreoni Family Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2 Starline Way # 6	open
Chive Blossom	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2244 Plainfield Pike	open
Coastal New England Zone - Frito Lay	Other	Sandwiches	45 Stamp Farm Rd	open
Corner Market Café	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	2050 Plainfield Pike	open
Countryside Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1105 Scituate Ave	open
Dm Cafe	Café	Coffee	1 Starline Way	open
Fresco Fresco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	140 Comstock Pkwy	open
Italian Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1 Starline Way	open
J&D Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		81 Valley View Dr	open
Kochi Sushi & Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse	1800 Plainfield Pike	open
Latte Love Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	11 Comstock Pkwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1820 Plainfield Pike	open
Neo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2244 Plainfield Pike	open
Oriental Taste	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2244 Plainfield Pike #6	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1776 Plainfield Pike	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2214 Plainfield Pike	open
The Chocolate Boutique	Dessert	Dessert	245 Phenix Ave	open
The Griddle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	2244 Plainfield Pike	open
The Parlor Creamery	Dessert · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	1105 Scituate Ave	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop	Coffee	Plainfield Pike	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1776 Plainfield Pike	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	6	2	1	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	3	—	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	3	—	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	6	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	4	—	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	7	—	4	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	7	5	—	2	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	2	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02921. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02823	2.5 mi	1	2004
02920	2.6 mi	104	2023
02831	3.8 mi	1	2016
02910	4.2 mi	52	2023
02919	4.5 mi	85	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.