BMIE Market 03254

Carroll County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,172 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,177 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±171 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,049 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,958 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$106,440 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,157 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	58.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,452 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±491 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$641,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±117,164 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	60.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03254
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	32.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+7.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+36.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+114.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 14–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.19) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03254. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.19, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.8	71	40%	+28.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.5	52	35%	+18.4
Market Momentum Score	58.8	59	25%	+14.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,172	61	40%	+24.4
Median household income (ACS)	106,440	85	40%	+33.9
Households (ACS)	2,177	62	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	7.1	51	35%	+18.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	29	21	25%	+5.3
Population (ACS)	5,172	61	20%	+12.2
Median household income (ACS)	106,440	85	20%	+17.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.1	64	50%	+32.0
10-year restaurant growth	7.1	51	30%	+15.4
20-year restaurant growth	36.4	56	20%	+11.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 3 · Asian 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anika's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1008 Whittier Hwy	open
Bobco Donut Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery	70 Whittier Hwy	open
Buckey's Restaurants Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		240 Gov Wentworth Hwy	open
Byrd's Toffee	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	10 Orton Ln	open
Center Harbor Bay Gulls	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	118 Whittier Hwy	open
Center Harbor Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	17 Whittier Hwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	70 Whittier Hwy	open
El Mariachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1094 Whittier Hwy	open
Elvio's Pizzeria in Moultonborough	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	60 Whittier Hwy	open
Ice Out Scoops	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	528 Whittier Hwy	open
Kevin's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	118 Whittier Hwy	open
Lee Wah Chen Restaurant \| Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	118 Whittier Hwy	open
Lemongrass Restaurant and Sake Bar	Bar	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	64 Whittier Hwy	open
Red Hill Dari	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	9 Whittier Hwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	377 Whittier Hwy	open
The Bob House And The Reel 'N Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	American	520 Whittier Hwy	open
The Boro Baking Co	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	377 Whittier Hwy	open
The Carriage House Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	586 Ossipee Park Rd	open
The Man Cave	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	240 Governor Wentworth Hwy	open
The Mug Sandwich Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	70 Whittier Hwy	open
The Village Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	734 Whittier Hwy	open
The Woodshed Restaurant	Casual dining · Bar		128 Lee Rd	open
Volcano Roasters L.l.c	Restaurant (service type not stated)		377 Whittier Hwy	open
White Mountain Subways Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		377 Whittier Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	10	9	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	10	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	9	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	12	10	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	12	9	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	17	12	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	16	10	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	15	13	7	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	18	15	9	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	15	7	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	16	9	3	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	15	8	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	14	7	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	14	7	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	15	7	3	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	16	7	3	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	15	8	—	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	15	7	—	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03254. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03850	3.4 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.