BMIE Market 03257

Merrimack County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,484 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±126 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,650 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±126 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,455 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,290 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$107,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,394 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,594 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±551 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$559,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64,880 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03257
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	44.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-18.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 10–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	19 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03257. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.1	69	40%	+27.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.0	39	35%	+13.7
Market Momentum Score	18.9	19	25%	+4.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,484	59	40%	+23.5
Median household income (ACS)	107,000	85	40%	+34.0
Households (ACS)	1,650	58	20%	+11.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-18.8	14	35%	+5.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	29.0	21	25%	+5.3
Population (ACS)	4,484	59	20%	+11.7
Median household income (ACS)	107,000	85	20%	+17.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 19 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.8	14	50%	+6.9
10-year restaurant growth	-18.8	14	30%	+4.3
20-year restaurant growth	8.3	39	20%	+7.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 5 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blue Loon Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	12 Lovering Ln	open
China City China City Whidbey Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	276 Newport Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	217 Main St	open
Flying Goose Brew Pub & Grille	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	40 Andover Rd	open
Grounds	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	374 Main St	open
Hole In The Fence Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	420 Main St.	open
Lethbridge Lodge and Galligan's Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Chargers Rd	open
Little Brother Burger Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	420 Main St	open
Millstone @ 74 Main Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	74 Newport Rd	open
New London Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	420 Main St	open
Peter Christian's Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	195 Main St	open
Pizza Chef of New London	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	394 Main St	open
Pleasant Lake Cheesecake Company	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	75 Newport Rd #108	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	384 Main St	open
The Elms Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		353 Main St	open
The Lounge - Colby-Sawyer College	Bar		101 Main St.	open
The Oak Room	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood	853 Pleasant St	open
Tjm Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		40 Andover Rd	open
Tucker's Tucker's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	207 Main St	open
New London Confections Llc	Bakery	Bakery	9 Newport Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	15	10	6	2	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	12	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	13	11	6	1	4	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	10	6	1	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	13	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	12	8	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	12	8	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	13	9	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	18	16	9	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	15	9	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	20	18	9	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	20	18	8	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	22	20	10	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	22	20	9	8	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	17	14	7	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	16	9	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	14	7	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	20	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	16	9	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	15	7	3	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	17	8	4	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	7	3	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	13	6	3	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	13	6	3	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03257. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03233	3.0 mi	1	1996
03287	3.8 mi	1	2013
03284	4.0 mi	—
03751	4.8 mi	1	1994

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.