BMIE Market 03818

Carroll County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,805 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±578 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,568 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,807 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,378 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$77,134 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,455 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$974 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±318 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$324,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,416 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	84.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03818
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	31.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-21.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-21.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-15.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.62) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	27 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03818. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.62, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.1	57	40%	+22.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	32.7	33	35%	+11.5
Market Momentum Score	27.4	27	25%	+6.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,805	56	40%	+22.5
Median household income (ACS)	77,134	58	40%	+23.3
Households (ACS)	1,568	57	20%	+11.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-21.4	13	35%	+4.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	28.9	21	25%	+5.3
Population (ACS)	3,805	56	20%	+11.2
Median household income (ACS)	77,134	58	20%	+11.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-21.4	13	30%	+3.9
20-year restaurant growth	-21.4	13	20%	+2.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 6 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Breakfast 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1 · Vegan 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Bar 4 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Almost There Sports Tavern And Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1287 NH Route 16	open
Banners Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	16 White Mountain Hwy	open
Bea's Cafe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee · Breakfast	50 White Mountain Hwy	open
Cafe Noche	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	147 Main St	open
Cheese Louise Cheese Louise	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Sandwiches · American	175 Kancamangus Hwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	402 W Main St	open
Fire 21 Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7 W Main St	open
First Stop Deli & Grocery	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	13 W Main St	open
Freeze Louise	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts	175 Kancamagus Hwy	open
Jonathon's Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	280 East Side Rd	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	715 White Mountain Hwy	open
Leavitt's Country Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	564 White Mountain Hwy	open
Lucy's Ice Cream Shop	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	76 Main St	open
Magic 8 Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	71 Hobbs St	open
Peace of Mind Baking Co	Bakery	Bakery	71 Hobbs St	open
Peterson's Hurt Locker	Bar	American	213 E Main St	open
Red Fox Pub & Restaurant	Bar		16 Jackson Ave	open
Riverstones Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery	112 Kancamagus Hwy	open
Sweet Maple Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	80 Main St	open
Tuckerman Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		66 Hobbs St	open
Valley Smoothie Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Vegan · Healthy / salads / bowls	24 Pleasant St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	16	16	10	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	16	16	10	3	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	16	8	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	13	8	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	13	8	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	13	8	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	14	8	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	12	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03818. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03897	4.5 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.