BMIE Market 03838

Carroll County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	983 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±355 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±186 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,031 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,652 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$68,385 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,534 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	57.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,703 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$407,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±86,146 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03838
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	87.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-55.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	1 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.66) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	27 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	38 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	19 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	22 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03838. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.66, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	37.8	38	40%	+15.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	19.2	19	35%	+6.7
Market Momentum Score	21.7	22	25%	+5.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	983	32	40%	+12.7
Median household income (ACS)	68,385	44	40%	+17.8
Households (ACS)	501	37	20%	+7.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 19 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-55.6	2	35%	+0.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	40.7	13	25%	+3.3
Population (ACS)	983	32	20%	+6.3
Median household income (ACS)	68,385	44	20%	+8.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 22 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-55.6	2	30%	+0.6
20-year restaurant growth	-66.7	1	20%	+0.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 5 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Breakfast 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Quick service 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
BeaverTails	Quick service		850 NH-16	open
Black Bear Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		Rr 302	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	DQ Grill & Chill Restaurant 749 NH Rte 16/302	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	539 NH-16	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	850 White Mountain Hwy	open
El Reparo	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	12 US-302	open
Glen Chill Out	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Sandwiches · Breakfast	1054 Nh Route 16	open
Joseph's Spaghetti Shed & Italian Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza · American	357 US-302	open
Kancamagus Highway,NH	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Kringle's Pizza & Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	5 Mittenwald Strasse, NH-16	open
Margarita Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	78 Us Route 302	open
Mount Washington Summit	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Red Parka Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	302 US Route 302	open
The Bistro at Living Shores	Restaurant (service type not stated)		NH-16 US Rt 302 850	open
The Island Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	184 US-302	open
The Sugarmaker Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	357 US-302	open
The Sunrise Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	598 US Route 302	open
The Sunrise Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	644 White Mountain Hwy	open
Vintage Baking Company	Bakery	Bakery	59 Route 302	open
White Mountain Cider Co	Bar		207 US-302	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	13	12	7	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	12	7	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	13	12	6	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	13	7	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	12	12	7	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	14	7	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	12	6	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	6	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	6	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	6	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	9	5	1	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	5	1	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	6	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03838. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03812	4.2 mi	3	2019

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.