BMIE Market 03864

Carroll County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,131 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±366 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	629 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±122 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,696 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	918 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,485 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,393 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	52.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$939 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±383 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$328,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,919 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	40.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03864
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	64.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.47) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03864. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.47, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.0	60	40%	+24.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	35.5	36	35%	+12.4
Market Momentum Score	13.2	13	25%	+3.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,131	46	40%	+18.4
Median household income (ACS)	104,485	84	40%	+33.5
Households (ACS)	629	41	20%	+8.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	35%	+4.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	28.2	22	25%	+5.5
Population (ACS)	2,131	46	20%	+9.2
Median household income (ACS)	104,485	84	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	30%	+3.5
20-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	20%	+1.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (11)

By cuisine

Dessert 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · American 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ballroom Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1312 Route 16	open
Curbside Pizza Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1020 Route 16	open
Dunkin'	Bakery	Bakery	870 Route 16	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	870 Rt 16	open
Hobbs Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		765 White Mountain Hwy	open
Mumma Christys Pizzas, Subs and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	Rt. 16	open
Ora's Coffee And Ice Cream	Coffee shop	Coffee	670 Route 16	open
Ossipee House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	674 NH-16	open
Route 16 Dairy Bar	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	970 NH-16	open
Stone House Cookies	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	985 Route 16	open
Sunny Villa Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	1020 Route 16	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	4	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	4	2	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	4	2	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	8	3	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03864. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03882	5.0 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.