BMIE Market 03872

Carroll County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,438 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±506 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,584 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±266 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,809 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,274 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$109,583 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,414 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$334,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40,111 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	52.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03872
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	23.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+233.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	42 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	29 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03872. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.4	69	40%	+27.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	42.1	42	35%	+14.7
Market Momentum Score	28.9	29	25%	+7.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,438	58	40%	+23.4
Median household income (ACS)	109,583	86	40%	+34.6
Households (ACS)	1,584	57	20%	+11.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.5	31	25%	+7.8
Population (ACS)	4,438	58	20%	+11.7
Median household income (ACS)	109,583	86	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	50%	+9.7
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

American 5 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
C & G Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	85 Meadow St	open
Frost Heave Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		260 Stoneham Rd	open
Home Again Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1614 Wakefield Rd	open
Knotty Pine Grill & Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	551 Pine River Pond Rd	open
Lino's Restaurant	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	3 High St	open
Lovell Lake Food Ctr	Restaurant (service type not stated)		66 Meadow St	open
Mary Mac's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1614 Wakefield Rd	open
Miss Wakefield Diner & Gracie's Country Store	Casual dining	American	7 Windy Hollow Rd	open
Poor People's Pub Poor People's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		1 Witchtrot Rd	open
Poor People's Pub Poor People's Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1 N Wakefield Rd	open
Sherry's Cakes By the Lake	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	12 Pike Brook Rd	open
The Boys Seafood Company	Quick service · Food truck	Seafood	16 Meadow St	open
The Wakefield Inn & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2723 Wakefield Rd	open
Tumbledown Farms Ice Cream Shoppe	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	11 Meadow St	open
Wakefield House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2076 Wakefield Rd	open
Wontons Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4774 White Mountain Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	4	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	8	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	9	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	9	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	11	8	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	8	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	8	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	8	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03872. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03830	3.9 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.