BMIE Market 03908

York County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,431 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±290 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,868 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±260 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,233 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,916 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,289 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,747 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,726 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±83 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$425,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,181 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	31.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03908
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+85.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+85.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	79 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03908. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.7	72	40%	+28.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.1	65	35%	+22.8
Market Momentum Score	78.6	79	25%	+19.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,431	66	40%	+26.5
Median household income (ACS)	98,289	80	40%	+31.9
Households (ACS)	2,868	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	35%	+24.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.5	44	25%	+11.1
Population (ACS)	7,431	66	20%	+13.3
Median household income (ACS)	98,289	80	20%	+16.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	30	83	50%	+41.6
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	30%	+21.3
20-year restaurant growth	85.7	78	20%	+15.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · American 6 · Bakery 4 · Pizza 4 · Dessert 3 · Breakfast 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Korean 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 6 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aggie's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	106 Agamenticus Rd	open
Aroma Joe's Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	170 Main St	open
Asia Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	233 Main St	open
Aubrey's Coffee House And Bakery	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2 Punkin Town Rd Ste 220	open
Blueberri Cove Pies	Bakery	Bakery	276 Oldfields Rd	open
Catbird Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	279 Main St	open
Crusty Boot	Bar		482 Emerys Bridge Rd	open
Dufour	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		224 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	175 Main St	open
Fogarty's Restaurant	Bakery	American · Bakery	471 Main St	open
Happy Valley Beer & Wine Garden	Bar		406 Main St	open
Hawk's Nest Kitchen and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		2 Punkintown Rd	open
Lee Frank's Lee Frank’s South Berwick	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	12 Portland St	open
Lunchbox	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	135 Agamenticus Rd	open
Madison's Cafe	Café	Coffee	12 Portland St	open
Mikeys Wicked Good Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	438 Main St	open
Moe’s Italian Sandwiches - Berwick Moe's Italian Sandwiches	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	8 Main St	open
Nod 11	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	298 Mountain View Rd	open
Odd Fellows Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	18 Portland St	open
Punkintown Scoop Shack	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2 Punkin Town Rd	open
Salmon Falls Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		22 Academy St	open
South Berwick House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	253 Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	170 Main St	open
The Early Bird	Café	Breakfast · Coffee · American	241 Main St	open
The Wildflower Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast	440 Main St	open
Thistle Pig	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	279 Main St	open
Tributary Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		5 Winding Brooke Ln	open
Triple Sweet Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	6 Springtree Ln	open
Unequivocal Alight	Coffee shop	Coffee	746 E Main St	open
Pepperland Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		279 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	4	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	4	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	5	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	10	5	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	5	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	4	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	3	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	12	3	6	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	13	4	5	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03908. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03869	4.6 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.