BMIE Market 04002

York County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,737 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,076 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±195 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,351 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,411 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,537 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,477 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,045 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±367 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$352,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,702 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	66.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04002
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.55) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	43 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04002. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.55, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.3	67	40%	+26.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.8	54	35%	+18.8
Market Momentum Score	43.2	43	25%	+10.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,737	67	40%	+26.8
Median household income (ACS)	84,537	68	40%	+27.0
Households (ACS)	3,076	67	20%	+13.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.5	86	25%	+21.6
Population (ACS)	7,737	67	20%	+13.4
Median household income (ACS)	84,537	68	20%	+13.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Bakery 6 · Dessert 5 · American 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 6 · Bar 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 2 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aroma Joe's Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5 Biddeford Rd	open
Back Road Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	298 Back Rd	open
Billi jo’s Cakes & Desserts	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	258 Goodwins Mills Rd Rt. 35	open
Birch Tree Food Truck & Catering	Food truck		1773 Alfred Rd	open
Bob's Bake Shop	Bakery	Bakery	139 Waterboro Rd	open
Chester's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1486 Alfred Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1480 Alfred Rd	open
Funky Bow Brewery and Beer Company	Brewery / taproom		21 Ledgewood Ln	open
Kimberly Gardens	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	42 Bennett Rd	open
Kona Ice of York County	Dessert · Food truck			open
Low's Variety	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	70 Sanford Rd	open
Marchese & Company, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3 Oak St	open
Mrs. C's Village Scoop	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	484 Goodwins Mills Rd	open
Oak Street Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	3 Oak St	open
On a Plain Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		347 Hill Rd	open
Shaker Pond Ice Cream Shaker Pond Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	148 Waterboro Rd	open
Sweet Mornings Bakery Stand	Bakery	Bakery	29 Lords Ln	open
The Community Coop	Bakery	Bakery	37 Country Way	open
The Shaker Hill Bakery	Bakery · Catering	Bakery	7 George Rd	open
Town Line Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	10 New County Rd	open
Truck to Table	Bar		1303 Alfred St	open
Hawg Heaven	Bar		10 New County Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	1	—	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	3	—	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	—	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	4	1	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	1	—	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	4	1	—	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	6	2	1	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	5	1	1	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	5	1	1	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	6	1	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	7	1	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	1	1	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	6	1	1	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	—	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	5	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	5	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	5	—	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	5	—	—	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04002. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.