BMIE Market 04046

York County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,102 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,466 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±211 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,496 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,589 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$102,529 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,840 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,477 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$586,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±53,154 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	44.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04046
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	29.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+4.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+38.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+13.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 22–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.19) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04046. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.19, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.8	74	40%	+29.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52	52	35%	+18.2
Market Momentum Score	59.3	59	25%	+14.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,102	68	40%	+27.1
Median household income (ACS)	102,529	82	40%	+33.0
Households (ACS)	3,466	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	4.2	49	35%	+17.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	30.9	19	25%	+4.8
Population (ACS)	8,102	68	20%	+13.5
Median household income (ACS)	102,529	82	20%	+16.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.7	66	50%	+33.0
10-year restaurant growth	4.2	49	30%	+14.8
20-year restaurant growth	38.9	58	20%	+11.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 23 · Seafood 12 · Coffee 7 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · BBQ 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Steakhouse 3 · Breakfast 2 · French 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Latin American (other) 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Bar 10 · Dessert 9 · Casual dining 7 · Bakery 6 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Food truck 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Quick service 3 · Specialty food shop 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alisson's Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11 Dock Sq	open
Arundel Eagles	Bar		2397 Portland Rd	open
Arundel House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1369 Portland Rd	open
Arundel Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Dessert	1181 Portland Rd	open
Arundel Wharf Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	43 Ocean Ave	open
Aunt Marie's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10 Ocean Ave	open
Bandaloop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2 Ocean Ave	open
Bandaloop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1200 Portland Rd	open
Bandaloop Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5 Oak Grove Ln	open
Ben & Jerry's Ben & Jerry's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5 Union St	open
Bentley's Saloon	Casual dining · Bar		1601 Portland Rd	open
Big Guys Stuffed Waffles	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast · American	1306 Alfred St	open
Cafe Couture	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	8 Spring St	open
Cape Pier Chowder House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	79 Pier Rd	open
Cape Porpoise Kitchen	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches · American	1 Mills Rd	open
CHAD’S	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	BBQ	1632 Portland Rd	open
Chatterbox Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	19 Tuckers Ln	open
Chef Gilley's Gourmet Foods	Bakery	Bakery	202 Irving Rd	open
Chez Rosa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	2 Ocean Ave	open
Earth at Hidden Pond	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	354 Goose Rocks Rd	open
Fiafia Smoothie Shop & Café	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	8 Spring St	open
Goose Rocks Dairy	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	278 Mills Rd	open
Heckmans Kennebunkport	Bar · Casual dining		95 Ocean Ave	open
Hurricane Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse · American	29 Dock Square	open
Kennebunk River Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	2564 Portland Rd	open
Lil's Dogs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	1632 Portland Rd	open
Mabel's Pantry	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	126 Ocean Ave	open
Marine Room Colony Hotel	Bar		149 Ocean Ave	open
Mike's American Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1132 Portland Rd	open
Mr. T's Smoke Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1632 Portland Rd	open
Musette Restaurant and Mobile Caterer	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Coffee · American	2 Pier Rd	open
Nunan's Lobster Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	9 Mills Rd	open
O'Reilly Lobster Co-op	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	6 Mills Rd	open
Ocean at Cape Arundel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American · French	208 Ocean Ave	open
Old Salt's Pantry	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	5 Ocean Ave	open
Port Fish & Chop House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American · Seafood	133 Ocean Ave	open
Roma Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5 Union St	open
Ryan's Corner House Irish Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	17 Western Ave	open
Salt and Honey	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	24 Ocean Ave	open
Satellite Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	4 Spring St	open
Seafood Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1181 Portland Rd	open
Snagglebites Soft Serve at Frinklepod Farm	Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	254 Log Cabin Rd	open
Somethin's Fishy	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1632 Portland Rd	open
Sprinkles Sprinkles	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1632 Portland Rd	open
Texas Grace Kitchen	Food truck	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1600 Portland Rd	open
The Burleigh	Bar · Casual dining		1 Dock Square	open
The Candy Man	Dessert	Dessert	20 Dock Square	open
The Dory	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	29 S Maine St	open
The Hidden Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	1697 Portland Rd	open
The Holy Donut	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	1197 Portland Rd	open
The Lost Fire	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · Latin American (other)	62 Mills Rd	open
The Ramp Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	77 Pier Rd.	open
The Tides Beach Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	930 Kings Hwy	open
Thinking out loud	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Asian		open
Ultramar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	77 Pier Rd	open
Wayfarer Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2 Pier Rd	open
Slacktide Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1697 Portland Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	22	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	22	21	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	28	27	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	28	27	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	25	22	16	5	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	25	22	16	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	22	21	16	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	26	25	16	7	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	21	19	13	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	19	18	11	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	20	18	11	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	18	16	11	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	18	16	11	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	22	18	13	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	20	17	11	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	20	17	11	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	24	22	15	4	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	26	24	16	4	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	25	21	13	2	6	1	NAICS2012
2013	27	24	13	3	8	1	NAICS2012
2014	23	20	12	3	5	1	NAICS2012
2015	25	22	14	3	5	1	NAICS2012
2016	24	21	15	1	5	1	NAICS2012
2017	24	22	15	—	6	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	23	14	—	7	—	NAICS2017
2019	27	24	16	—	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	25	22	14	—	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	22	14	—	7	—	NAICS2017
2022	27	23	15	3	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	29	25	15	3	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04046. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04005	4.3 mi	66	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.