BMIE Market 04084

Cumberland County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±525 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,784 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±234 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,088 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,767 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$109,345 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,012 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$961 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±166 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$351,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,988 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04084
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+350.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 6–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	30 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04084. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.6	75	40%	+29.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.5	51	35%	+18.0
Market Momentum Score	30.2	30	25%	+7.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,900	67	40%	+26.9
Median household income (ACS)	109,345	86	40%	+34.5
Households (ACS)	2,784	66	20%	+13.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	35%	+4.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.4	67	25%	+16.7
Population (ACS)	7,900	67	20%	+13.5
Median household income (ACS)	109,345	86	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 30 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	30%	+3.5
20-year restaurant growth	125	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 4 · American 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Quick service 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aroma Joe's Coffee Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	278 Whites Bridge Rd	open
Aroma Joe's Coffee Drive Thru Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10 Ossipee Trail W	open
Country Pub Of Maine Llp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Ossipee Trl E	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	58 Ossipee Trail	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	30 Ossipee Trl E	open
Karry Out Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	111 Ossipee Trl E	open
Lakeside Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	2 Chadborne Rd	open
Outpost Scoop Shoppe	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	380 Pequawket Trail	open
Papa's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	62 Ossipee Trl E	open
Percy's Table	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	111 Ossipee Trl E	open
Sebago Landing Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	450 Northeast Rd	open
Sebago Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	111 Ossipee Trl E	open
Shameless Alibi	Bar		12 Mountain View Ln	open
Silly's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	131 Ossipee Trail W	open
Standish House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	35 Ossipee Trail W	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	58 Ossipee Trail East	open
Sweet and Savory Bakehouse	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	51 Pequawket Trail	open
Sweet and Savory Bakehouse	Bakery	Bakery	131 Ossipee Trl W	open
T.j.s Sandwich Shop	Other	Sandwiches	2 Chadbourne Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	6	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	5	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	5	1	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	7	4	—	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	7	—	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	7	—	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	8	1	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	12	4	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	15	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	12	2	6	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	2	6	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	—	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04084. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04085	3.2 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.