BMIE Market 04086

Sagadahoc County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,706 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,011 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±241 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,787 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,170 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$91,028 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,915 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,355 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±642 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$360,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,993 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04086
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	25.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+43.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+64.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+187.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	27 (range 24–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.74) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	72 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04086. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.74, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.0	72	40%	+28.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.6	64	35%	+22.3
Market Momentum Score	71.6	72	25%	+17.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,706	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	91,028	74	40%	+29.6
Households (ACS)	4,011	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	43.8	79	35%	+27.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23.7	29	25%	+7.2
Population (ACS)	9,706	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	91,028	74	20%	+14.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.5	67	50%	+33.5
10-year restaurant growth	43.8	79	30%	+23.6
20-year restaurant growth	64.3	72	20%	+14.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

American 10 · Coffee 9 · Sandwiches 6 · Pizza 5 · Burgers 4 · Bakery 3 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sushi 2 · Thai 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Quick service 9 · Coffee shop 7 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Café 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
104 Main Public House	Casual dining · Bar	American	104 Main St	open
99 Restaurants 99 Restaurants	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	34 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Aroma Joe's Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1 Second Street	open
Benbows Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop	Coffee	35 Canam Dr	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	49 Topsham Fair Mall Rd Ste 1	open
Blueberries	Other	Sandwiches	4 Bowdoin Mill Is	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	105 Topsham Fair Mall Road	open
Cantrell Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	235 Lewiston Rd	open
Chen Kume Hibachi Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		86 Topsham Fair Mall Rd Unit 3	open
Coldstone Creamer 4	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10 Garnet Dr	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service	Burgers · American	59 Main St 59 Main St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	4c Hamilton Court Route 196	open
Fairground Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	49 Topsham Fair Mall Rd #14	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	56 Topsham Fair Mall Rd.	open
Herbalife B56 Nutrition LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	65 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Jason's NY Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	49 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	51 Topsham Fair Mall Road	open
Knead & Nosh	Bakery	Bakery	4 Bowdoin Mill Island	open
kobe garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)		104 Main St	open
Kopper Kettle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	7 2nd St	open
Kume Japanese Sushi & Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse	86 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	49 Topsham Fair Mall Rd Ste 3	open
Mainery Wine Tours	Restaurant (service type not stated)		73 Middlesex Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1 Topsham Fair Mall	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	75 Topsham Fair Mall Road	open
Pizza Hut Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	125 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Rising Sun Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	433 Lewiston Rd	open
Romeos Topsham Romeo's Pizza	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	18 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Ruby Tuesday	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	55 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Sam's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5 Horton Pl	open
Sea Dog Brewing Company Topsham Sea Dog Bangor	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		1 Bowdoin Mill Island	open
Siam Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	235 Lewiston Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	125 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	125 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	15 Winners Circle	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	4A Hamilton Ct	open
The Duck Pub & Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		114 Village Dr	open
Top Spice Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	6 1st St	open
Victory Foods Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4 Bowdoin Mill Is	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	15 Topsham Fair Mall Rd	open
Wicked Joe Organic Coffees	Coffee shop	Coffee	35 Canam Dr	open
Barn Door Cafe	Café	Coffee	4 Bowdoin Mill Is Ste 102	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	15	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	16	12	3	7	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	17	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	13	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	15	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	19	18	8	7	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	18	17	8	6	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	21	20	9	7	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	21	20	7	8	5	—	NAICS2007
2009	21	20	9	7	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	23	22	9	10	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	20	19	8	8	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	17	17	6	6	5	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	16	6	6	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	20	18	6	7	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	16	5	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	20	7	9	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	21	19	7	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	21	9	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	21	9	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	24	10	9	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	23	22	9	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	21	9	8	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	25	23	9	11	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04086. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04011	4.8 mi	76	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.