BMIE Market 04107

Cumberland County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,656 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±77 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,745 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±243 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,980 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,944 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$146,054 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,645 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,185 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$729,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±53,097 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04107
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04107. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.4	80	40%	+32.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.2	65	35%	+22.8
Market Momentum Score	39.8	40	25%	+10.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,656	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	146,054	96	40%	+38.3
Households (ACS)	3,745	70	20%	+14.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.3	79	25%	+19.8
Population (ACS)	9,656	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	146,054	96	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	14.3	42	20%	+8.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 5 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Seafood 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Breakfast 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Food truck 3 · Casual dining 2 · Bar 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bite Into Maine	Food truck		Fort Williams Park	open
Bite Into Maine Bite Into Maine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Sandwiches · American	1000 Shore Rd	open
C Salt Gourmet Market	Café	Coffee	349 Ocean House Rd	open
Cake Elizabeth	Bakery	Bakery	8 Ramble Rd	open
Cliff House Beach	Bar		19 Sea View Ave	open
Cousins Maine Lobster Portland, ME Cousins Maine Lobster	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	12 Captain Strout Cir	open
Gorgeous Gelato	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	Captain Strout Cir	open
Kettle Cove Ice Cream and Shack	Dessert · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	2 Bowery Beach Rd	open
Ocean House Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls · Dessert	327 Ocean House Rd	open
Ocean House Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	337 Ocean House Rd	open
Rudy's of the Cape	Restaurant (service type not stated)		517 Ocean House Road	open
Sea Glass	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	40 Bowery Beach Rd	open
Tacos Y Tequila Cape Elizabeth	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	517 Ocean House Rd	open
Tasty Box	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	327 Ocean House Rd Ste 8	open
The Cookie Jar	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	554 Shore Rd	open
The Good Table	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	527 Ocean House Rd	open
The Hungry Hood	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9 Meadow Way	open
The Lobster Shack at Two Lights	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	225 Two Lights Rd	open
The Well at Jordan's Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	21 Wells Rd	open
Tostones Café	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Coffee	337 Ocean House Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04107. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04106	3.9 mi	104	2023
04108	4.2 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.