BMIE Market 04252

Androscoggin County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,968 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±591 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,962 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±264 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,799 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,103 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$73,476 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,117 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$972 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±451 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$258,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,476 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04252
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 7–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04252. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.3	57	40%	+22.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.9	53	35%	+18.5
Market Momentum Score	39.2	39	25%	+9.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,968	60	40%	+24.1
Median household income (ACS)	73,476	53	40%	+21.1
Households (ACS)	1,962	61	20%	+12.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.1	42	25%	+10.6
Population (ACS)	4,968	60	20%	+12.1
Median household income (ACS)	73,476	53	20%	+10.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aroma Joe's Coffee Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	692 Lisbon St	open
Big Dipper	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	501 Lisbon St	open
Canton Pearl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	17 Main St	open
Darlin’ Farms, LLC	Bakery	Bakery	130 Summer St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	586 Lisbon St	open
Dr Mike's Madness Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	583 Lisbon St	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	583 Lisbon St	open
Elite Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	580 Lisbon St	open
Flux Restaurant and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	12 Main St	open
Frank's Restaurant and Pub	Casual dining · Bar	American	2 Main St	open
Lisbon Fuel Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)		19 Capital Ave	open
Lisbon House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	688 Lisbon Rd	open
Little River Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	11 Union St	open
MacDaddys Seafood and Tots	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	551 Lisbon St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	580 Lisbon St	open
Merit DC	Café		4815 Hope Rd	open
Olive Pit Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		16 Main St	open
Pinky D's	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	17 Higgins St	open
Railroad Diner	Casual dining · Bar	American	697 Lisbon St	open
Sams Italian Foods Sam's Italians	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Sandwiches · Pizza	583 Lisbon St	open
Smiley's Ice Cream Shoppe	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	590 Lisbon Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	568 Lisbon St	open
Lisbon Donuts Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		583 Lisbon St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	3	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	4	1	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	4	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	—	3	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04252. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04250	3.1 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.