BMIE Market 04282

Androscoggin County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,891 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,288 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±174 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,734 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,481 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$100,036 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,235 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$584 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±490 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$284,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50,171 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	59.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04282
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 4–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04282. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.2	70	40%	+28.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.0	54	35%	+18.9
Market Momentum Score	64.8	65	25%	+16.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,891	63	40%	+25.2
Median household income (ACS)	100,036	81	40%	+32.4
Households (ACS)	2,288	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.3	52	25%	+12.9
Population (ACS)	5,891	63	20%	+12.6
Median household income (ACS)	100,036	81	20%	+16.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	28.6	83	50%	+41.3
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

American 3 · Coffee 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Antigoni’s Turner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	792 Auburn Rd	open
Aroma Joe's Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	60 Auburn Rd	open
Cap Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)		293 Auburn Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	6 Stonecrest Dr	open
Fireworks Mobile Wood Fired Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	518 Upper St	open
Jasmine Mobile	Food truck	Thai · Asian	1077 Auburn Rd	open
Northland Dairy Treat	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · American	1355 Auburn Rd	open
Ricker Hill Tasting Room - Hard Cider & Winery	Brewery / taproom · Winery / distillery / taproom		15 Ricker Hill Rd	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	Route 4 Auburn Rd	open
Terry & Maxine's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	32 Auburn Rd	open
The Highland Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	10 Highland Ave	open
The Nutrition Barn	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	7 Cobblestone Way	open
The Runaway	Bar		40 Airport Rd	open
The Wagon Wheel Bakery, LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	200 Auburn Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	3	—	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04282. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.