BMIE Market 04364

Kennebec County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,191 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,522 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±290 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,025 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,230 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$86,470 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,802 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$892 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±319 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$294,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,097 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	31.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04364
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-35.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.66) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04364. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.66, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.3	66	40%	+26.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.3	43	35%	+15.2
Market Momentum Score	17.5	17	25%	+4.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,191	64	40%	+25.5
Median household income (ACS)	86,470	70	40%	+27.9
Households (ACS)	2,522	65	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-35.7	9	35%	+3.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.5	54	25%	+13.6
Population (ACS)	6,191	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	86,470	70	20%	+13.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	-35.7	9	30%	+2.6
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · American 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · African 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 5 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Casual dining 4 · Quick service 4 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Absolem Cider	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		799 Winthrop Center Rd	open
China Empress	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	357 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	377 Main St	open
Espresso N Go	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	121 Main St	open
Fast Eddies	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	1308 US-202	open
Full Court Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	83 Route 133	open
Island Park Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2541 US-202	open
Kongs Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	410 Main St	open
Kraken Krumbz	Bakery	Bakery	373 Turkey Ln	open
My Tribe Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	10 Cross Rd	open
Peppers Garden & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		357 Main St	open
Pete's Roast Beef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · African	Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	134 Main St	open
Sully's	Bar		6 Union St	open
Tavern on the Hill 305	Bar · Casual dining		357 Main St	open
Ted's Trackside Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	83 ME-133	open
The Gourmet Potato	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		662 Stanley Rd	open
TJ's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2215 US-202	open
Van Der Brew	Brewery / taproom		30 Summer St	open
White Duck Brew Pub	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		2527 US-202	open
Winthrop Commerce Cafe	Coffee shop · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	16 Commerce Plz	open
Winthrop House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	61 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	10	3	4	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	10	2	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	11	2	7	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	12	11	2	7	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	2	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	5	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	16	13	4	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	15	12	5	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	14	4	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	5	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	2	8	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	1	8	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04364. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04265	4.2 mi	2	2016
04284	4.6 mi	1	1997

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.