BMIE Market 04543

Lincoln County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,192 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±311 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	988 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±157 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,218 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,359 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$59,423 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,165 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,027 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±88 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$363,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,988 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04543
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	76.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+21.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+43.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+109.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+130.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 18–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	80 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04543. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	39.9	40	40%	+16.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.5	44	35%	+15.2
Market Momentum Score	79.7	80	25%	+19.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,192	46	40%	+18.6
Median household income (ACS)	59,423	29	40%	+11.5
Households (ACS)	988	49	20%	+9.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	43.8	79	35%	+27.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	104.9	4	25%	+1.0
Population (ACS)	2,192	46	20%	+9.3
Median household income (ACS)	59,423	29	20%	+5.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	21.1	78	50%	+39.1
10-year restaurant growth	43.8	79	30%	+23.6
20-year restaurant growth	109.1	85	20%	+17.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · American 7 · Dessert 6 · Seafood 6 · Bakery 4 · Burgers 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Casual dining 5 · Quick service 5 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Food truck 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ampersand Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	158 Main St	open
Ann's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · European	17 Back Meadow Rd	open
Barn Door Cafe	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	162 Main St	open
Bento Sushi Bento Sushi	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	469 Main St	open
Best Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	88 Main St	open
Bred in the Bone	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	133 Main St	open
Buzz Maine	Coffee shop	Coffee	133 Main St	open
Coastal Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	372A Main St	open
Cocinas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	115 Main St Bsmt DAMARISCOTTA	open
Crissy's Breakfast & Coffee Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	212 Main St, Damariscotta, ME 04543	open
Cupacity	Coffee shop	Coffee	133 Main St	open
Damariscotta River Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	155 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	434-1 Main St	open
Eat Maine Lobster	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Seafood	93 Elm St	open
King Eider's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		2 Elm St	open
King Wok Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	11 Coastal Market Dr	open
Koko’s Sandwich Bar	Specialty food shop · Fast casual · Quick service	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	603 Main St	open
Larson's Lunch Box	Food truck	Seafood · Burgers	430 Main St	open
Lucky Fortune	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	422 Main St	open
Maine Coast Book Store Cafe	Café	Coffee	158 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	485 Main Street Rte 1	open
Mediterranean Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean		open
Metcalf's Submarine Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	49 Main St	open
Old Time Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	748 Main St	open
Oysterhead Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	189 Main St	open
Reunion Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	23 Center St	open
River House Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	27 Main St	open
Romeo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	436 Main Street	open
Round Top Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	526 Main St	open
Rue 77	Coffee shop	Coffee	77 Main St	open
Savory Maine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	11 Water St	open
Smashed Burgers & Brews	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	85 Parking Lot Ln	open
Spinney’s Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · BBQ	28 Biscay Rd	open
Spin’s Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	28 Biscay Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	521 Main St	open
The Lobster Haul	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	115 Elm St	open
van lloyd bistro	Casual dining		85 Parking Lot Ln	open
Waltz Soda Fountain	Dessert · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	167 Main St	open
Weatherbird	Bakery	Bakery	72 Courtyard St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	13	9	2	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	15	15	11	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	16	15	10	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	17	5	8	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	16	6	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	17	6	7	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	15	7	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	16	8	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	16	9	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	17	10	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	20	19	9	5	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	19	9	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	17	9	3	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	17	8	4	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	7	4	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	18	6	8	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	23	8	11	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04543. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04539	3.4 mi	3	2023
04551	3.8 mi	1	1996
04553	4.3 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.