BMIE Market 04572

Lincoln County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,253 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,582 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±207 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,075 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,651 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,107 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,160 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$348 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±153 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$274,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,563 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	71.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04572
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.71) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	24 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04572. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.71, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.7	56	40%	+22.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36.6	37	35%	+12.8
Market Momentum Score	24	24	25%	+6.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,253	61	40%	+24.5
Median household income (ACS)	69,107	46	40%	+18.2
Households (ACS)	2,582	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.0	40	25%	+10.0
Population (ACS)	5,253	61	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	69,107	46	20%	+9.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 24 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	50%	+9.7
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	25	49	20%	+9.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · American 4 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Filipino 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Casual dining 5 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Twist of Moody's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1885 Atlantic Hwy	open
Borealis Breads Waldoboro Maine	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	1860 Atlantic Hwy	open
Bullwinkle's Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Steakhouse · American · Seafood	2919 Atlantic Hwy	open
Coffee Beanery Waldoboro Coffee Beanery - Gillette, Wyoming	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1400 US-1	open
Crave Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	722 Atlantic Highway	open
Day Boat Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	17 Friendship Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1400 Atlantic Hwy	open
Jade Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Filipino · Chinese	1530 Atlantic Hwy	open
Moody's Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	1885 Atlantic Hwy	open
Narrows Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		15 Friendship Rd	open
Odd Alewives	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	99 Old Rte One	open
Perch Cafe & Bakery	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	11 Friendship Rd	open
Route 220 Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2788 Friendship Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1560 Atlantic Hwy	open
Total Victory Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	65 Washington Rd	open
Waldoughboro Pizza Shoppe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	258 Jefferson St	open
Wicked Good Restaurant	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3499 Atlantic Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04572. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.