BMIE Market 04578

Lincoln County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,709 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±190 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,249 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±219 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,450 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,317 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$81,063 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,092 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	52.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,480 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±447 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$327,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,720 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	33.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04578
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	33.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-5.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-5.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 16–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04578. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.7	62	40%	+24.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36.0	36	35%	+12.6
Market Momentum Score	25.5	26	25%	+6.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,709	59	40%	+23.8
Median household income (ACS)	81,063	64	40%	+25.4
Households (ACS)	2,249	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-5.9	21	35%	+7.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	34.0	17	25%	+4.2
Population (ACS)	4,709	59	20%	+11.9
Median household income (ACS)	81,063	64	20%	+12.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-5.9	22	50%	+11.0
10-year restaurant growth	-5.9	21	30%	+6.2
20-year restaurant growth	14.3	42	20%	+8.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (45)

By cuisine

American 9 · Coffee 9 · Seafood 7 · Dessert 4 · Asian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Burgers 1 · Korean 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Bar 11 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 3 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Quick service 3

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abby's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	698 Bath Rd	open
Back River Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		65 Gardiner Rd	open
Barnhouse Grill & Pub Wiscasset	Bar · Casual dining		690 Bath Rd Route 1	open
Bath Ale Works	Brewery / taproom · Bar		681 Bath Rd	open
Big Barn Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	104 Churchill St	open
Charm Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	762 Bath Rd	open
China Bar	Bar	Chinese · Asian	306 Bath Rd	open
Crossroads Coffee Beans	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1238 Main Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	632 Bath Rd	open
grounded	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	147 Gardiner Rd	open
In A Silent Way	Bar		65 Main Street	open
Jolie Rogers Raw Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	8 Railroad Ave	open
Le Garage Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	15 Water St	open
Liberty Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	493 Gardiner Rd	open
Lucky Angrily	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	1495 Frisbie Hill Rd	open
Maine Ocean Buzz Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	564 Bath Rd	open
Mammys Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	100 Main St [US Rt 1]	open
Marketplace Cafe	Café	Breakfast · Coffee · American	681 Bath Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	695 Bath Road	open
Midcoast Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	681 Bath Rd	open
Panacea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	100 Main St	open
Red's Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Sandwiches · American	41 Water St	open
RK Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		Av. Corrientes 1669, C1042AAC Cdad.	open
Sarah's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	45 Water St	open
Sasanoa Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		61 Tarbox Rd	open
Sea Basket	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	303 Bath Rd	open
Seacoast Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	564 Bath Rd	open
Sherre's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	560 Gardiner Rd	open
Ships Chow Hall	Casual dining	American		open
Simpson's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	690 Bath Rd	open
Sprague's Lobster	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	22 Main St	open
Spruce	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	49 Water St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	681 Bath Road #4	open
Sweetz and More	Dessert	Dessert	298 Bath Rd	open
Taste of Orient	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	306 Bath Rd	open
The Cracked Egg Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		560 Gardiner Rd	open
The Cubbyhole Sports Pub	Bar		213 W Alna Rd	open
the little village bistro	Casual dining		65 Gardiner Rd	open
The River Shack	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1 Water St	open
TREATS	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	80 Main St	open
Twin Schooner Pub	Bar	American	45 Water St	open
Water Street Kitchen and Bar	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · Mediterranean	15 Water St	open
Wiscasset House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	74 Flood Ave	open
Ækeir Brewing Tasting Room	Brewery / taproom · Bar		111 Main St	open
Miss Wiscasset Diner	Casual dining	American	762 Bath Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	14	9	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	15	10	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	15	10	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	10	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	13	9	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	15	10	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	14	9	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	17	10	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	9	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	17	16	10	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	17	11	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	16	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	17	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	18	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	20	10	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	16	9	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	10	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04578. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04556	4.1 mi	3	2021
04579	4.1 mi	3	2019

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.