BMIE Market 04927

Kennebec County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,385 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,394 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±199 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,486 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,547 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$71,458 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,131 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,177 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±118 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$187,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,740 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	Not published for this ZIP 2011 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2011 detail (NAICS2007) · by USPS ZIP 04927
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 1998 → 2003, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2008	1 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1994–2003 (9 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04927. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1994–2003, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.4	52	40%	+28.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69.4	69	35%	+32.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,385	54	40%	+21.6
Median household income (ACS)	71,458	49	40%	+19.8
Households (ACS)	1,394	55	20%	+11.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.0	98	25%	+37.5
Population (ACS)	3,385	54	20%	+16.7
Median household income (ACS)	71,458	49	20%	+15.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (5)

By cuisine

Coffee 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Quick service 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Clinton Variety & Pizza &pizza	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches	1105 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	153 Hinckley Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		153 Hinckley Road	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Coffee	165 Hinckley Rd,	open
Anchor Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	76 Hinckley Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2011	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04927. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04975	3.6 mi	1	2003

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.