BMIE Market 04963

Kennebec County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,524 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±218 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,121 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±203 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,238 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,050 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$77,708 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,524 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$948 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$247,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,158 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	51.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04963
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.61) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04963. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.61, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.7	64	40%	+25.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70	70	35%	+24.5
Market Momentum Score	58.5	59	25%	+14.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,524	67	40%	+26.6
Median household income (ACS)	77,708	59	40%	+23.6
Households (ACS)	3,121	67	20%	+13.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.0	65	25%	+16.2
Population (ACS)	7,524	67	20%	+13.3
Median household income (ACS)	77,708	59	20%	+11.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

Dessert 3 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Allagash Skillet	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Ray Haskell Ford, 801 Kennedy Memorial Dr	open
Candy Hollow	Dessert	Dessert	856 Kennedy Memorial Dr	open
China Express	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	822 Kennedy Memorial Dr	open
Delightful Bites Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	14 Middle Rd	open
Dockside Lobster Co.	Food truck		826 Kennedy Memorial Dr	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	848 Kennedy Memorial Dr	open
Early Bird Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		232 Summer St	open
Early Bird Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	37 Main St	open
Korner Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	45 Oak St	open
Millers Pride Food Trailer	Bar	American · Seafood	279 Fairfield St	open
Oakland House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	16 Water St	open
Pho Appetite	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Vietnamese · Tea / bubble tea	886 Kennedy Memorial Dr	open
Sheba's Wicked Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Juice / smoothies	822 Kennedy Memorial Dr	open
Shelby's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	895 Kennedy Memorial Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	57 Main Street	open
The Ice Cream Shoppe of Oakland	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	902 Kennedy Memorial Dr	open
The Thirsty Mule	Bar · Casual dining		168 Old Waterville Rd	open
Tree Spirits	Winery / distillery / taproom		152 Fairfield St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	12	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	8	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	8	6	2	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	1	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04963. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04918	2.9 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.