BMIE Market 06422

Middlesex County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,208 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,986 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±244 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,388 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,694 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$158,857 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,311 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,154 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±448 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$424,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,556 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06422
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	49 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06422. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.5	79	40%	+31.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.1	66	35%	+23.1
Market Momentum Score	49.3	49	25%	+12.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,208	66	40%	+26.4
Median household income (ACS)	158,857	97	40%	+38.8
Households (ACS)	2,986	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	35%	+19.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.9	57	25%	+14.2
Population (ACS)	7,208	66	20%	+13.2
Median household income (ACS)	158,857	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	30%	+16.5
20-year restaurant growth	42.9	60	20%	+12.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Vegetarian 2 · American 1 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Quick service 7 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bar 5 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Artie's Bar & Grill	Bar		New Haven Rd	open
Carmine's Pizza and Italian Take Out	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	16 Main St #101	open
Code B Tavern	Bar		Goldfinch Rd	open
Cozy Corner Restaurant and Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	5 New Haven Rd	open
Dine In Durham	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	325 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	349 Main St Grippo's Mobil	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	38 Main St	open
Durham Dari Serve	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	13 Main St	open
Gmonkey mobile	Food truck · Catering	Vegetarian	423 Haddam Quarter Rd	open
Golden House Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	325 Main St	open
Hard Hat Tavern Hard Hat ll	Casual dining · Bar		100 New Haven Rd	open
Krauszer's Food Store	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	459 Madison Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	24 Main St	open
Lino's Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	472 Main St	open
Mex on Main, LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	370 Main St	open
Pedals Smoothie and Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	16 Main St	open
Perk on Main	Coffee shop	Coffee	6 Main St	open
Stella's Pub	Bar		23 Canterbury Dr	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	349 Main Street	open
The Whole Enchilada The Whole Enchilada Westbrook	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	370 Main St	open
Time Out Tavern	Bar		100 New Haven Rd. (Hwy. 17)	open
We Bake We Jam	Bakery	Bakery	111 Tuttle Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	3	—	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	4	—	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	2	—	5	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	2	—	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	10	5	2	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	4	3	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	11	10	4	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	11	5	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	4	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	2	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	12	9	2	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	12	8	1	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	13	9	—	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	10	—	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	9	—	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	8	—	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	—	4	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	10	—	4	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06422. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06455	3.6 mi	3	2023
06481	4.7 mi	1	1996

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.