BMIE Market 06424

Middlesex County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,751 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,171 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±237 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,808 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,466 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$123,680 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,366 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,408 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±148 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$347,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,320 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	39.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06424
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+63.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 17–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.50) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06424. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.50, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.3	81	40%	+32.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.9	76	35%	+26.6
Market Momentum Score	73.6	74	25%	+18.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,751	74	40%	+29.7
Median household income (ACS)	123,680	91	40%	+36.6
Households (ACS)	5,171	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.1	56	25%	+14.0
Population (ACS)	12,751	74	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	123,680	91	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	28.6	51	20%	+10.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · American 5 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 7 · Café 5 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abbeez Frozen Yogurt bar	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	11 N Main St	open
American Distilling Manufacturing Co	Winery / distillery / taproom		31 E High St	open
Angelico's Lakehouse Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	81 N Main St	open
Black Walnut Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	81 Main St	open
Champion's Hill	Bar		63 Champion Hill Rd	open
Chatham Caterers	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7 Overlook Rd	open
Chatham Creamery Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	11 N Main St	open
China Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	42 E High St #2	open
D'eliana Market, Deli and Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	38 W High St	open
Drafty Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	138 E High St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	25 East High St, Unit 1	open
ECO Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	82 Main St	open
Frida East Hampton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	37 E High St	open
Island Coffee Traders	Coffee shop	Coffee	37 E High St	open
Island Vibes Creamery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	11 N Main St	open
Lakeside Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	81 N Main St	open
Loco Perro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · American	191 E High St	open
Majors	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	55 Main St	open
Mateo's Taco & Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Sandwiches	87 Main St Ste B	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	15 E High St	open
Po's Rice and Spice	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Chinese · Asian	97 Main St	open
Rossini's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	62 W High St	open
Rule of 3 Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		201 W High St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	36 East High Street	open
Sweet Jean's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	13 N Main St	open
Tang Asia Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	11 E High St	open
The Dublin	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	42 E High St	open
The Tavern On 66	Casual dining · Bar		227 W High St	open
The Town Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	26 E High St	open
Tiki Bar and The Bucket	Bar		5 Tiffany Ct	open
Two Brothers Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	20 E High St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	20	18	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	22	17	11	3	3	3	NAICS1997
1999	25	20	12	5	3	3	NAICS1997
2000	18	15	9	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	18	14	8	4	2	3	NAICS1997
2002	18	15	8	6	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	17	14	7	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	19	17	9	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	16	14	6	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	16	14	4	7	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	16	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	13	4	7	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	15	12	4	5	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	5	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	5	3	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	12	5	4	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	6	5	4	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	14	5	5	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	17	16	7	4	5	1	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	16	10	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	15	9	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	18	9	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	18	9	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06424. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06456	2.7 mi	—
06414	2.8 mi	1	2016
06469	4.6 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.