BMIE Market 06441

Middlesex County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,348 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±387 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,178 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±203 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,438 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,172 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$111,250 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,805 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,458 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±219 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$393,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±43,081 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	24.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06441
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	33 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06441. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.9	72	40%	+28.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.6	54	35%	+18.8
Market Momentum Score	32.8	33	25%	+8.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,348	62	40%	+24.6
Median household income (ACS)	111,250	87	40%	+34.9
Households (ACS)	2,178	62	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.8	46	25%	+11.6
Population (ACS)	5,348	62	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	111,250	87	20%	+17.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 4 · Italian 4 · Breakfast 3 · Burgers 3 · Pizza 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Bakery 1 · Indian 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
AJ's Restaurant and Pizza &pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	26 Killingworth Rd	open
Blue Highway Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	986 Killingworth Rd	open
Brewed Awakening Llc Brewed Awakening	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Sandwiches	19 Killingworth Rd	open
Brookside	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Chenzo's Italian Kitchen & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	968 Killingworth Rd	open
Coffee Connection	Coffee shop	Coffee	19 Killingworth Rd	open
Deb's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	40 Saybrook Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	201 Saybrook Rd	open
Fork In The Road Llc	Bakery	Bakery	310 Saybrook Rd	open
Higgies	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bar	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers	236 Saybrook Rd	open
Higgies	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers	236 Saybrook Rd	open
HK Dairy Barn	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	986 Killingworth Rd	open
Jack's Country Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	26 Killingworth Rd	open
Kaitlyn's Cafe Press	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Indian	747 Beaver Meadow Rd	open
Papa's Pizza & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8 Little City Rd	open
Phantom Burger & Brewery	Brewery / taproom	Burgers · American	199 Saybrook Rd	open
Pizzeria Da Vinci Higganum	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7 Killingworth Rd	open
Riverside Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	26 Killingworth Rd	open
Rooted Lounge	Casual dining · Bar		66 Killingworth Rd	open
Square Peg Pizzeria Higganum	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	66 Killingworth Rd	open
The Road Runner Pub	Bar · Casual dining		12 Killingworth Rd	open
Dino's Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	968 Killingworth Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	4	—	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	6	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	5	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	10	7	—	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	13	9	6	—	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06441. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06438	3.9 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.