BMIE Market 06461

New Haven County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,035 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,069 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,823 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±353 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,552 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,664 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$133,221 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,423 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,299 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±241 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$424,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,931 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06461
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-45.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-45.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+900.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2020, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+500.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 4–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	25 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06461. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.4	83	40%	+33.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.3	60	35%	+21.1
Market Momentum Score	25.3	25	25%	+6.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,035	77	40%	+30.7
Median household income (ACS)	133,221	94	40%	+37.5
Households (ACS)	5,823	77	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-45.5	7	35%	+2.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.0	95	25%	+23.7
Population (ACS)	15,035	77	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	133,221	94	20%	+18.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 25 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-45.5	7	50%	+3.3
10-year restaurant growth	-45.5	7	30%	+2.2
20-year restaurant growth	900	99	20%	+19.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 4 · American 3 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Filipino 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 5 · Quick service 5 · Café 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Casual dining 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
BIC Drive Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	500 Bic Dr	open
Cafe 185	Café	Coffee	185 Plains Rd	open
Carvel Express	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2 Ct Turnpike W.	open
Cushion Legend	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	1302 Spruce St	open
DiBella's Subs DiBella's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1440 Boston Post Rd	open
Franchise World Headquarters Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other · Quick service	Sandwiches	325 Sub Way	open
Franco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11 Berwyn St	open
George's Gourmet Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Golf Zone	Bar		1183 Oronoque Rd	open
Hong Kong Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	16 Red Bush Ln	open
Joey C's Roadhouse	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		11 Berwyn St	open
Johnny Rockets	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	127 Meadow St	open
Marty's Snack Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)		291 Bic Dr	open
Mike's Italian Deli & Grill	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Italian · Sandwiches	16 Red Bush Ln	open
Moe's Southwest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Mexican · Ice cream / frozen desserts	I-95 Between	open
Monty's River Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	130 Coram Ln	open
Patterson Pub	Bar		95 Utica St	open
Pent Park Cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	472 Wheelers Farm Rd	open
Pickles Country Store & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	883 North St	open
Sabarro's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Filipino	195 North St	open
Sbarro Sbarro	Quick service		I-95	open
Small American Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11 Berwyn St	open
Subway Franchise Development North America	Restaurant (service type not stated)		325 Sub Way	open
Subway Franchisee Shipping Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)		500 Bic Dr	open
Tribus Beer Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		100 Raton Rd	open
Louis V Elmo	Restaurant (service type not stated)		265 Bic Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1999	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2004	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	4	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	5	—	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	11	1	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	—	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	6	—	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	—	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	10	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06461. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06460	2.1 mi	147	2023
06614	2.9 mi	59	2023
06477	4.1 mi	70	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.