BMIE Market 06812

Fairfield County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,584 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,562 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±309 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,881 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,593 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$137,647 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,943 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,896 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±280 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$484,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,621 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06812
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+45.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 12–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06812. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.4	82	40%	+33.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.5	71	35%	+24.7
Market Momentum Score	69.3	69	25%	+17.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,584	75	40%	+30.0
Median household income (ACS)	137,647	94	40%	+37.8
Households (ACS)	4,562	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	35%	+20.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.8	65	25%	+16.4
Population (ACS)	13,584	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	137,647	94	20%	+18.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	23.1	79	50%	+39.7
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	30%	+17.4
20-year restaurant growth	45.5	61	20%	+12.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Dessert 5 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Asian 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · American 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Quick service 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Biscotti's Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	4 Cotton Tail Rd	open
Bruno's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	100 CT-37	open
Dessert Works	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	90 CT-39	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	100 State Route 37	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	74 State Route 37	open
Froggy's Sandwiches Froggy's Sandwiches-Somers NY	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	9 Brush Hill Rd	open
Goodie Shoppe	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1 Brush Hill Rd	open
Holy Yoga of Connecticut	Restaurant (service type not stated)		88 State Route 37	open
Icons Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		80 CT-39	open
Main Moon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	28 CT-39	open
OLDE 37 PATIO & GRILL	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Hot dogs	25 State Route 37	open
Peachwave	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	28 Route 39	open
Portofino Restaurant & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	88 CT-37	open
Rudri Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		28 State Route 39 Ste 11	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5 Old State Highway 39 Shaws Plaza	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	28 Route 39, Unit 11	open
Sweet Cake Mountain	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	51 Wood Creek Rd	open
The 440 Line	Bar		249 State Route 39	open
Twelve Grapes	Bar		28 CT39	open
Twisters Ice Cream Cafe	Dessert · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	74 CT-37	open
YOYO TEA & SWEETS	Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Tea / bubble tea · Bakery	28 CT-39	open
Yummy Yummy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	54 Connecticut 37	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	14	12	3	5	4	1	NAICS1997
1999	14	11	3	5	3	2	NAICS1997
2000	13	11	3	5	3	1	NAICS1997
2001	14	12	2	6	4	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	11	4	4	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	11	4	3	4	1	NAICS2002
2004	17	15	5	6	4	1	NAICS2002
2005	17	14	4	6	4	1	NAICS2002
2006	18	15	5	5	5	1	NAICS2002
2007	18	15	5	5	5	1	NAICS2002
2008	14	11	6	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	16	13	7	3	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	15	12	7	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	13	8	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	17	15	6	6	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	15	5	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	15	5	7	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	18	14	4	7	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	15	13	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	13	4	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	13	3	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	13	3	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	14	3	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	14	3	8	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	3	8	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06812. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06811	4.0 mi	70	2023
06804	5.0 mi	51	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.