BMIE Market 07827

Sussex County, New Jersey · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,109 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±94 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,654 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±159 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,244 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,975 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$101,444 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,018 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,260 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±730 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$346,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,806 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	53.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 07827
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-44.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-28.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.84) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	27 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 07827. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.84, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Jersey and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 567, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.2	67	40%	+26.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.3	46	35%	+16.2
Market Momentum Score	27.3	27	25%	+6.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,109	57	40%	+22.9
Median household income (ACS)	101,444	82	40%	+32.7
Households (ACS)	1,654	58	20%	+11.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-44.4	7	35%	+2.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.2	64	25%	+15.9
Population (ACS)	4,109	57	20%	+11.5
Median household income (ACS)	101,444	82	20%	+16.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-44.4	7	30%	+2.2
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 4 · American 3 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Quick service 5 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Place Away From Home Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	266 Clove Rd	open
Blue Heron Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	342 Shore Dr	open
Candy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	452 US-206	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	17 NJ-23	open
Dunkin Donuts	Coffee shop	Coffee	10 State Highway 23 N	open
Dunkin' Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	15 New Jersey 23 Clove Rd	open
J and J Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	266 Clove Rd	open
Jons Karate Academy	Bar		452 US Highway 206	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	13 Rt 23 Rd	open
Montague Grille & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Casual dining · Bar	Sandwiches · American	266 Clove Rd	open
Quick Stop Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	266 Clove Rd	open
Secro, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17 State Route 23	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	15 Route 23 South	open
Westfall Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		141 Clove Rd	open
WINE CAMP	Winery / distillery / taproom		10 State Route 23	open
YiaYia's Greek Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	432 US-206	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	4	3	1	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	4	3	1	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	4	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 07827. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.