BMIE Market 07848

Sussex County, New Jersey · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,257 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±399 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,573 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±125 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,026 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,757 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$128,317 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,175 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	52.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,528 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±212 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$436,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,103 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 07848
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.11) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 07848. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.11, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Jersey and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 567, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.6	72	40%	+28.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.5	52	35%	+18.4
Market Momentum Score	63.9	64	25%	+16.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,257	58	40%	+23.1
Median household income (ACS)	128,317	93	40%	+37.0
Households (ACS)	1,573	57	20%	+11.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.8	40	25%	+10.1
Population (ACS)	4,257	58	20%	+11.6
Median household income (ACS)	128,317	93	20%	+18.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (13)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Burgers 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Café 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arturo's Pizzeria and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	55 State Route 15	open
Bagful O' Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	11 RT-15	open
Benjess Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12D Morris Farm Rd	open
Cafe Mangia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	183 SH 15	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	183 State Route 15	open
Fat Daddy's	Quick service	Burgers · Sandwiches	191 RT-15	open
Lafayette House Lafayette House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		139 RT-15	open
Lafayette Management Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		75 State Route 15 Unit 100	open
Millside Cafe	Café	Coffee	12 Morris Farm Rd	open
Starbucks	Café	Coffee	8A Village Dr	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	8A N Village Blvd	open
Village Sweets	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	The Shoppes at Lafayette (lower level, 75 NJ-15 #75	open
Windsor House Tea Room and Bakery	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café · Bakery	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee · Bakery	86 NJ-15	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	10	5	2	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	10	5	2	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	6	—	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	7	—	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	5	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	8	—	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	7	—	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	—	—	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 07848. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
07822	3.2 mi	5	2023
07871	4.5 mi	39	2023
07439	4.5 mi	1	2016
07416	4.8 mi	18	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.