BMIE Market 10928

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,071 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±483 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,274 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±238 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,175 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,934 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$102,347 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,531 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,670 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±165 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$329,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,354 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10928
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	35.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+77.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 15–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.24) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	62 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10928. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.24, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.8	70	40%	+27.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.2	56	35%	+19.7
Market Momentum Score	62.3	62	25%	+15.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,071	61	40%	+24.3
Median household income (ACS)	102,347	82	40%	+33.0
Households (ACS)	2,274	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	35%	+23.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	31.6	19	25%	+4.6
Population (ACS)	5,071	61	20%	+12.1
Median household income (ACS)	102,347	82	20%	+16.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.7	63	50%	+31.7
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	30%	+19.7
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

Pizza 8 · American 5 · Coffee 5 · Italian 5 · Mexican 5 · Bakery 3 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Korean 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Bar 5 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 3 · Buffet 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2 Dogs Hot Dogs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	353 Main St	open
American Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	467 Main St	open
Amore Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches · Pizza	265 Main St	open
Andy's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	281 Main St	open
Antojitos Plus Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	319 Main St	open
Bean & Barrel Cafe and Lounge	Café · Bar	Coffee	447 Main St	open
Bear Mountain Bakery & Cafe	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	307 Main St	open
Bear Mountain Pizza & Cafe	Café	Pizza · Italian · Coffee	840 Rte 9W	open
Benny Havens Pub & Restaurant	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	305 Main St	open
Brother's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	233 Main St	open
Captain crispy chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chicken / wings · American	443 Main St	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	521A Main St	open
Delizia's Pizza Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	287 Main St	open
Dong Fong Restaurant	Buffet	Chinese · Asian	433 Main St	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	310 Main St	open
Gracie Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)		447 Main St	open
Hacienda Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	145 Main St	open
Highland social	Bar	American	8 Schneider Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	104 W Point Hwy	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	104 W Point Hwy	open
Nana's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian	319 MAIN St	open
Old Oak Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	Route 9 W	open
Park Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	451 Main St Ste A	open
Patricia's Soul Buffet	Buffet	Cajun, Creole, Southern	323 Main St	open
Pepe's Tacos	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		134 Old State Rd	open
Pied Piper Pies	Bakery	Bakery	307 Main St	open
Rafi's Gyro Loco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	323 Main St	open
Schade's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	457 Main St	open
South Gate Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	British / Irish pub food	509 Main St	open
Sushi King Sushi King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Korean	323 Main St	open
Thayer Gate Deli & Cafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	521 Main St	open
The Bunker Cafe	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · American	4 Webb Ln	open
The Ice Cream Shoppe	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	419 Main St	open
Tikal Grill Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	505 Main St	open
Tony's Pizza Roman's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · Italian · American	505 Main St	open
West Point Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	282 Main St	open
Westy's Highland Falls	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		427 Main St	open
Sazam Corp Dba Tonys Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		505 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	16	14	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	20	18	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	22	15	6	7	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	23	16	6	8	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	21	14	6	6	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	18	12	4	5	3	2	NAICS1997
2002	15	10	2	6	2	3	NAICS1997
2003	16	12	5	5	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	17	12	6	4	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	17	13	6	5	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	16	13	6	4	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	17	13	8	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	17	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	17	13	6	4	3	2	NAICS2007
2010	18	15	6	6	3	2	NAICS2007
2011	15	13	6	5	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	15	13	5	6	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	15	13	5	6	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	5	8	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	16	14	5	8	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	20	18	9	7	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	19	16	6	8	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	18	15	5	7	3	3	NAICS2017
2019	19	15	5	7	3	3	NAICS2017
2020	18	15	4	7	4	3	NAICS2017
2021	19	16	6	7	3	3	NAICS2017
2022	21	17	6	8	3	3	NAICS2022
2023	19	16	6	7	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10928. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10922	1.0 mi	3	2023
10911	2.8 mi	2	2016
10996	3.4 mi	1	2016
10524	4.2 mi	5	2023
10986	4.4 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.