BMIE Market 10941

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,422 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±995 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,182 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±333 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,779 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,131 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$99,238 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,345 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,804 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±79 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$348,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,115 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	40 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10941
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	22.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+21.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+135.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,900.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	44 (range 39–48) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.0 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	79 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10941. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.6	78	40%	+31.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.6	63	35%	+21.9
Market Momentum Score	78.7	79	25%	+19.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,422	76	40%	+30.4
Median household income (ACS)	99,238	80	40%	+32.2
Households (ACS)	5,182	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	27.7	23	25%	+5.7
Population (ACS)	14,422	76	20%	+15.2
Median household income (ACS)	99,238	80	20%	+16.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	21.2	78	50%	+39.1
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	135.3	88	20%	+17.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (80)

By cuisine

American 10 · Dessert 9 · Sandwiches 9 · Italian 8 · Pizza 8 · Coffee 7 · Bakery 6 · Japanese 6 · Sushi 5 · Asian 4 · Chinese 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Caribbean 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Seafood 2 · Steakhouse 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 56 · Dessert 13 · Bakery 9 · Casual dining 7 · Quick service 7 · Bar 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Café 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Other 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
110 Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1 N Galleria Dr	open
3 Mama's and Mike	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast		open
845 Exotic Snacks	Dessert		1 N Galleria Dr	open
A lo Paisa Pues	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Rte 211 E 741	open
Above The Clouds	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4 Scotchtown Ln	open
Alfonso's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	835 NY-211	open
An Al Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		835 Route 211 E	open
Asian Spice	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1 N Galleria Dr	open
Aspire Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		600 N Galleria Dr	open
Brian's Backyard BBQ	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ		open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	567 Route 211 E	open
Casa Mia Latin Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	2040 Goshen Tpke	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks Charleys Cheesesteaks	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1 Galleria Dr	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1 N Galleria Dr Ste FC05	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		33 Crystal Run Xing	open
China Star China Star	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	731 NY-211	open
Chopped and Pressed	Other · Fast casual · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	2 Ben Gilman Wy	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	1 Galleria Drive	open
Cosimo's Brick Oven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	620 Route 211 E	open
Cosimos Brick Oven of Wallkill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		602 RT-211 E	open
Crystal Run Express, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 N Galleria Dr	open
D Lux Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	14 Crystal Run Xing	open
Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1 Galleria Dr, Galleria Mall At Crystal Run	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Bakery · Coffee	2 Ben Gilman Way	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2580 NY-302	open
El tarasco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1 N Galleria Dr	open
Family Farm Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	253 Tower Dr	open
Freshens	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1 N Galleria Dr	open
Fuji Japanese Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse	1 Galleria Dr	open
Genji Japan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1 Galleria Dr	open
Gertrude Hawk Gertrude Hawk Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	1 Galleria Dr	open
Haiku Japanese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	731 NY 211	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	33 Crystal Run Xing	open
IT'SUGAR Crystal Run IT'SUGAR	Dessert	Dessert	One Galleria Dr	open
Jalapeño Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1 Galleria Dr	open
Jen's Cuisines	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	741 Route 211 E	open
Jeongs Candy Land	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 N Galleria Dr	open
Jmbest Food Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2580 Route 302	open
Johnny Rockets	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1 N Galleria Dr Ste B-115 Ste B115	open
Juicy Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	731 Route 211 E Ste 107	open
J’s Steam N Fry	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1 N Galleria Dr	open
Kumo Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	731 NY-211 E, 107	open
Long Fu	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	303 Tower Dr	open
Master Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	1 Galleria Dr	open
Mcgorman & Smith Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		741 Route 211 E Ste 6	open
Mezzaluna Pizzaria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		741 Route 211 E	open
Midtown Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)		610 RT-211 E	open
Monroy's Pizza (Middletown) Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	670 NY-211	open
Mr Smoothie	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1 N Galleria Dr Ste 37	open
Olive Falafel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	670 NY-211	open
Olive Garden Olive Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	200 N Galleria Dr	open
Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	25 Crystal Run Xing	open
Pearl River Pastry	Bakery	Bakery	54 Turner Dr	open
Pecorino's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	253 Tower Dr	open
Peru Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Sandwiches · Peruvian	1 N Galleria Dr Ste 75	open
Pretzel Time Of Middletown Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 N Galleria Dr	open
Pretzelmaker Galleria Mall	Other · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	1 N Galleria Dr Spc 207	open
Roman Delight Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	Galleria Dr	open
Ruby Tuesday of Middletown Ruby Tuesday	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	1 Galleria Dr	open
Scotch Bonnet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	1 Galleria Dr Ste 142	open
Scotchtown Craft	Casual dining · Bar	American	741 NY-211 E	open
Sicilian Delight	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1 N Galleria Dr	open
Silverlake Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	599 Silver Lake Scotchtown Rd	open
Snowfox Sushi Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	30 Tower Dr	open
South Philly Steak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 N Galleria Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	56 Crystal Run Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1 Galleria Dr	open
Starbucks, Middletown Rt. 211 Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	555 NY-211	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1 N Galleria Dr Ste Fc08	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2580 Route 302	open
Tai Fu	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Chinese	680 NY-211 #1	open
The Greek Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	Stoneridge Mini Mall, 731 Route 211 East #107, Middletown, NY 10940	open
Tj Cinnamons	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 N Galleria Dr	open
Tres Leches Deli III	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	390 Crystal Run Rd	open
Villa Gaudio of Bullville Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2856 NY-17K	open
Village Deli & Grill	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Casual dining · Bar	Sandwiches	851 Route 211 E	open
Wendy's	Quick service		1 N Galleria Dr Ste Fc06	open
Y & E CREATIONS	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	1 GALLERIA DRIVE 109, A-109	open
Yovani's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	741 Route 211 E	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	18	17	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	24	21	4	11	5	2	NAICS1997
1999	23	20	6	10	4	2	NAICS1997
2000	16	14	5	7	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	17	15	5	8	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	20	16	6	8	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	19	17	5	10	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	19	18	7	9	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	22	21	10	8	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	25	24	12	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	32	29	16	9	4	1	NAICS2002
2008	30	28	14	10	4	1	NAICS2007
2009	28	27	13	10	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	34	31	15	13	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	31	28	14	12	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	33	31	14	13	4	1	NAICS2012
2013	33	30	14	13	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	33	30	14	12	4	1	NAICS2012
2015	36	33	16	14	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	32	29	16	9	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	33	31	14	12	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	35	33	16	12	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	36	33	15	13	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	36	34	15	12	7	—	NAICS2017
2021	37	34	16	11	7	—	NAICS2017
2022	42	40	20	13	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	43	40	19	12	9	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10941. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10919	3.3 mi	2	2016
10915	3.5 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.