BMIE Market 10992

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,843 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,003 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,154 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±254 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,621 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,467 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$112,353 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,938 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,396 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±169 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$413,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,201 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10992
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+550.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10992. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.8	77	40%	+30.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.0	68	35%	+23.8
Market Momentum Score	47.1	47	25%	+11.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,843	71	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	112,353	88	40%	+35.0
Households (ACS)	3,154	68	20%	+13.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	18.2	62	35%	+21.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.2	59	25%	+14.9
Population (ACS)	9,843	71	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	112,353	88	20%	+17.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	18.2	62	30%	+18.5
20-year restaurant growth	8.3	39	20%	+7.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

Dessert 5 · Pizza 5 · American 4 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Italian 3 · Chinese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1839 Restaurant & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	84 Brotherhood Plaza Dr	open
3Ninja’s Washingtonville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	30 W Main St	open
Ache' Smoothie Bar and Cafe'	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	6 Depot St #103	open
Aliotta & Son, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		40 Brotherhood Plaza Dr	open
Amada's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	15 E Main St	open
Brother Bruno's Pizzeria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	40 Brotherhood Plaza Dr	open
Brotherhood, America's Oldest Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		100 Brotherhood Plaza Dr	open
Carlo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	109 E Main St	open
Cedric’s Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Cirone's Chocolate Shop	Dessert	Dessert	48 Brotherhood Plaza Dr	open
Dogfellas	Food truck		1529 Route 208	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	30 W Main St	open
F & J Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	7 Goshen Ave	open
Gigi’s Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	167 E Main St	open
Greek Brothers Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	3 Goshen Ave	open
Guilty Pleasures Cheesecakes	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	1 Depot St	open
Hook and Ladder Saloon	Bar		5 E Main St	open
Kam Fung Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	16 Brotherhood Plaza Dr	open
Orange County Bagel	Bakery	Bakery	32 W Main St Ste 2	open
Pena’s Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1 E Main St	open
Perfect Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	11 North St	open
Planet Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1 E Main St, Washingtonville, NY 10992	open
Positano Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	167 E Main St	open
Ristorante Italiano Toscanini	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	179 E Main St	open
Southern Soul On The Go	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Cajun, Creole, Southern	29 W Main St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	30 W Main St	open
Sun Hing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	7 Goshen Ave	open
T & M II Go	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	167 E Main St	open
Tacos Y mas TACOS Y MAS	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	15 E Main St	open
The Candy Lady	Dessert	Dessert	3 Goshen Ave	open
The Five Foot Baker	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	32 W Main St	open
Vinum Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		84 Brotherhood Plaza Dr	open
Washingtonville Farmer's Market	Bar		29 W Main St	open
Yukhi Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		32 W Main St Ste 2	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	13	12	5	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	11	3	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	14	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	10	4	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	15	11	5	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	16	12	7	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	17	13	6	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	14	11	6	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	15	12	6	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	13	10	5	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	14	11	5	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	15	13	5	6	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	18	16	6	8	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	15	13	7	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	14	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10992. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10914	1.9 mi	1	2016
12577	2.5 mi	3	2022
10930	4.0 mi	6	2023
12575	4.2 mi	1	2014
10916	4.4 mi	3	2023
10953	4.7 mi	1	2001

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.