BMIE Market 11770

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	77 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±62 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	22 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	137 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,196 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$123,571 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±78,030 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$1,055,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±401,460 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	0.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11770
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1,167.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+63.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 14–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	30 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	26 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	22 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11770. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 30 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	39.8	40	40%	+15.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	25.8	26	35%	+9.0
Market Momentum Score	21.6	22	25%	+5.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	77	6	40%	+2.2
Median household income (ACS)	123,571	91	40%	+36.6
Households (ACS)	22	5	20%	+1.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2,337.7	0	25%	+0.0
Population (ACS)	77	6	20%	+1.1
Median household income (ACS)	123,571	91	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 22 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	50%	+7.0
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	20	46	20%	+9.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 10 · Seafood 9 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 4 · Pizza 4 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Albatross	Bar	Seafood · American	320 Bay Walk	open
Beacheria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	786 Evergreen Walk	open
Beaches and Cream	Dessert · Casual dining · Bar	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	479 Bay Ave	open
Bocce Beach	Bar		927 Evergreen Walk	open
Captain Bills Restaurant Captain Bills Restaurant and Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood		open
Castaway Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		927 Evergreen Walk	open
CJ's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	479 Bay Walk	open
Copcakes Arresting Appetites	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	504 Bayberry Walk	open
Dockside Brick Oven Pizza & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Seafood · Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	778 Bay Walk	open
Flavors Ocean Bay Park	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	44 Bayview Walk	open
Flynn's Fire Island	Casual dining · Bar		1 Cayuga St	open
Hideaway Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	785 Evergreen Walk	open
Housers Bar	Casual dining · Bar		778-781 Bay View Walk	open
Hurricane's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	25 Cayuga St	open
Ice Castle Sweet Shoppe	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	621 Bayberry Walk	open
Maguire's Bayfront Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	1 Bungalow Ln	open
Matthew's Seafood House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	935 Bay Walk	open
Michael's Ristorante & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	789 Evergreen Walk	open
On the Way Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	44 Bay View Walk	open
RACHEL’S Restaurant & Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · American	325 Bay Walk	open
Samui Thai - Fire Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	44 Bayview Walk	open
Schooner Inn	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American · Seafood · Italian	57 Bay Walk	open
Scoops	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	310 Bay Walk	open
The Corner FI	Restaurant (service type not stated)		68 Bayview Ave	open
The Dunes	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	620 Bay Walk	open
The Landing Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	310 Bay Walk	open
The Sandbar - Fire Island	Bar · Casual dining		470 Bay Walk	open
Town Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	317 Bay Walk	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	14	11	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	14	12	10	2	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	15	13	11	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	15	13	10	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	14	11	10	1	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	16	13	11	1	1	3	NAICS1997
2003	17	15	13	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	11	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	16	14	10	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	17	15	10	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	10	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	17	11	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	18	17	11	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	16	11	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	18	18	12	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	20	20	14	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	20	20	14	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	21	21	14	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	22	22	14	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	22	14	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	24	23	14	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	22	13	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	20	19	12	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	19	12	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	22	21	12	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	19	12	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	18	11	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11770. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11739	4.4 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.