BMIE Market 11954

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,223 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±883 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,615 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±262 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,326 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,722 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$142,961 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,566 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,313 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±363 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,356,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±243,422 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	53 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11954
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	132.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+32.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+82.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	59 (range 51–67) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.35) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11954. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.35, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.7	73	40%	+29.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.1	49	35%	+17.2
Market Momentum Score	59.9	60	25%	+15.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,223	58	40%	+23.1
Median household income (ACS)	142,961	95	40%	+38.1
Households (ACS)	1,615	58	20%	+11.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6	51	35%	+17.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	125.5	3	25%	+0.8
Population (ACS)	4,223	58	20%	+11.5
Median household income (ACS)	142,961	95	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10.4	68	50%	+34.0
10-year restaurant growth	6	51	30%	+15.2
20-year restaurant growth	32.5	53	20%	+10.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (135)

By cuisine

American 33 · Seafood 27 · Coffee 19 · Italian 8 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 7 · Japanese 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Sushi 6 · Bakery 5 · Breakfast 5 · Dessert 5 · Mediterranean 5 · Mexican 5 · Pizza 5 · Asian 4 · European 4 · Latin American (other) 3 · Burgers 2 · French 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Greek 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegan 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 90 · Bar 24 · Casual dining 18 · Café 15 · Quick service 10 · Coffee shop 9 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 5 · Specialty food shop 5 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
148 South Emerson Associates Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		148 S Emerson Ave	open
668 The Gig Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		782 Montauk Hwy	open
70th Street Trading Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		685 Old Montauk Hwy	open
Alimentari Beach Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	752 Montauk Hwy	open
Anthony's Pancake House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	710 Montauk Hwy	open
Aqua East	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	17 S Edison St	open
Arbor Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Mediterranean	240 Fort Pond Rd	open
Bagatelle Montauk Bagatelle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · Mediterranean · European	500 W Lake Dr	open
Beaches & Beans Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Bird on the Roof	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		47 S Elmwood Ave	open
Bluestone Lane Montauk Coffee Shop Bluestone Lane	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	786 Montauk Hwy	open
Bounce Beach Montauk	Bar		148 S Emerson Ave	open
Breakwater Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		236 Edgemere St	open
Cap's Montauk Harbor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	448 W Lake Dr	open
Casa Sereña	Restaurant (service type not stated)		183 Edgemere St	open
Ciao by the Beach	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		240 Fort Pond Rd	open
Coffee + Flowers	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	19 S Elmwood Ave	open
Coffee Tauk	Coffee shop	Coffee	83 S Elmwood Ave	open
Continental Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	34 S Etna Ave Ste A	open
Crispy Taco Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	769 Old Montauk Hwy	open
Dave's Gone Fishing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	467 E Lake Dr	open
Ditch Plains Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		695 Montauk Hwy	open
Ditch Witch	Food truck · Quick service · Café	Coffee	40 Deforest Rd	open
Double J Service Corp.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		721 Montauk Hwy	open
Duke's Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		440 W Lake Dr	open
Duryea's Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	65 Tuthill Rd	open
East By Northeast	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	51 Edgemere St	open
El Taco Ole Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	805 Montauk Hwy	open
Fish Cheeks - Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	467 E Lake Dr	open
Fro Yo and Gelato Montauk	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	43 S Euclid Ave	open
Fudge N Stuff	Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery	41 Fisher Pl	open
George’s Lighthouse Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Café · Bar	Coffee	1999 Montauk Point State Pkwy	open
Gin Beach Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Coffee	467 E Lake Dr	open
Goldberg's Bagels Goldberg's Famous Bagel of East Quogue	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	28 S Etna Ave	open
Goldberg's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	57 Flamingo Ave	open
Gosman Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)		484 W Lake Dr	open
Gosman's Clam Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Seafood	484 W Lake Dr	open
Gosman's Dock	Bar	American · Seafood	500 W Lake Dr	open
Gosman's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	500 W Lake Dr	open
Gosman's Restaurant By The Sea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	779 Montauk Hwy	open
Grey Lady	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	440 W Lake Dr	open
Gringos Burrito Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		805 Montauk Hwy	open
Gscr Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		41 S Euclid Ave	open
Hampton Coffee Company Hampton Coffee Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Breakfast · Bakery	732 Montauk Hwy	open
Happy Bowls Happy Bowls	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	805 Montauk Hwy	open
Harvest on Fort Pond	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	11 S Emery St	open
Herb's Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	778 Montauk Hwy	open
Hideaway Montauk	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	364 W Lake Dr	open
Hooked Hooked	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	34 S Etna Ave	open
Hurricane Alley	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	32 Star Island Rd	open
Inlet Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	541 E Lake Dr	open
John Papas Cafe	Café	Coffee	126 S Emerson Ave	open
John's Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	677 Montauk Hwy	open
John's Pancake House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	721 Montauk Hwy	open
Joni's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Healthy / salads / bowls	28 S Etna Ave	open
Kenny's Castaways	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	432 W Lake Dr	open
Kimmy Cakes Montauk	Bakery	Bakery	2 S Debusy Rd	open
Kissaki Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	467 E Lake Dr	open
La Brisa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	752 Montauk Hwy	open
Left Hand Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	57 Flamingo Ave	open
Left Hand Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	83 S Elmwood Ave	open
Lennys On The Rock	Restaurant (service type not stated)		474 W Lake Dr	open
Liar's Saloon	Bar		401 W Lake Dr	open
Lighthouse Grill	Café · Quick service · Casual dining · Bar	Coffee	1999 Montauk Hwy	open
Lounge Lair	Bar		2 Homeward Ln	open
Lucky J's Chicken & Waffles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	440 W Lake Dr	open
Lynn's Hula Hut	Bar		364 W Lake Dr	open
M&R Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	728 Montauk Hwy	open
Maison Close Montauk Maison Close NYC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	435 E Lake Dr	open
Manucci's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	440 W Lake Dr	open
Marlena's Pack Out	Bar		408 W Lake Dr	open
Mary Lou’s Mary-Lou’s Smokehouse & Craft Bar	Bar	American	474 W Lake Dr	open
Mavericks Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 S Edgemere St	open
Michael Kitchen & C	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	34 S Etna Ave	open
Montauk Bake Shoppe	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	29 The Plaza A	open
Montauk Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		62 S Erie Ave	open
Montauk Juice Factory	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Juice / smoothies	12 S Etna Ave	open
Montauk Lighthouse Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	1999 Montauk Hwy	open
Montauk Sea Salt	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1 Old Montauk Hwy	open
Monte's At the Manor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	236 Edgemere St	open
MTK Lobster House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	716 Montauk Hwy	open
Muse at The End	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	41 S Euclid Ave	open
Naturally Good Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	38 S Etna Ave	open
Navy Beach	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	16 Navy Rd	open
Og Coffee & Juice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee · American · Steakhouse · Seafood · Breakfast	290 Old Montauk Hwy	open
Pizza Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	700 Montauk Hwy	open
Primavera Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	54 S Erie Ave	open
Quincho's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	10 S Etna Ave	open
Ralph's Italian Ices and Ice Cream Ralph's Italian Ices- Lanoka Harbor, NJ	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8 S Etna Ave	open
Red Hook Lobster MTK	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	34 S Etna Ave	open
Rooted	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	440 W Lake Dr	open
Sammys Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	\West Lake Drive Montauk, NY	open
Sand Shack	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Sandwiches	717 Montauk Hwy	open
Sausages Pizza and Pastabilities	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	781 Montauk Hwy	open
Sea Salt	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	90 Second House Rd	open
Seaside House Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	57 Flamingo Ave	open
Sel Rrose Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4 S Elmwood Ave	open
Shagwong	Casual dining · Bar		774 Montauk Hwy	open
Shepherds Neck Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	90 Second House Rd	open
South Edison	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	17 S Edison St	open
Star Island Grill Star Island Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	59 Star Island Rd	open
Star Island Grill Star Island Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Mediterranean · American	Montauk	open
Street Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	58 S Erie Ave	open
Street Food on the Green	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Seafood · Asian	99 The Plaza	open
Sundae Donuts Montauk	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	716 Montauk Hwy Ste 5	open
Swallow East Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		474 W Lake Dr	open
Sweet Az Sandos	Quick service	American	51 Edgemere St	open
Talya Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European · American	161 2nd House Rd	open
Tauk at Trail's End	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	63 S Euclid Ave	open
The Beach Club	Bar		290 Old Montauk Hwy	open
The Candied Anchor	Dessert	Dessert	721 Montauk Hwy	open
The Dock Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	482 W Lake Dr	open
The Harbor Raw Bar & Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café	Seafood · Coffee · Greek	440 W Lake Dr	open
The Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert		open
The Munch Box	Quick service	American · Burgers	41 The Plaza F	open
The Other Side At Inlet Seafood Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		795 Montauk Hwy	open
The Point Bar & Grill The Point Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		697 Montauk Hwy	open
The Regent Cocktail Club	Bar		290 Old Montauk Hwy	open
The Sea Bean Natural Foods Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Edgmere st	open
The Sloppy Tuna	Restaurant (service type not stated)		148 S Emerson Ave	open
Tiny Harbor Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	440 W Lake Dr	open
Tt's Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	466 W Lake Dr	open
Unisource Global Solutions, Llc Dba Herb	Restaurant (service type not stated)		778 Montauk Hwy	open
Van Leeuwen Ice Cream	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Seafood · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Vegetarian · Vegan · American	32 Star Island Rd	open
Wave Crave	Food truck · Catering	American	170 Old Montauk Hwy	open
West Lake Clam & Chowder House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Sushi · Japanese	352 W Lake Dr	open
Westlake Fish House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	352 W Lake Dr	open
Zum Schneider Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	4 S Elmwood Ave	open
Common Ground Montauk	Restaurant (service type not stated)		435 E Lake Dr	closed
Fishbar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	467 E Lake Dr	closed
O’murphy’s	Bar		432 W Lake Dr	closed
Pink Frog Cafe	Café · Dessert · Coffee shop	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	28 S Etna Ave	closed
Scarpetta Beach	Restaurant (service type not stated)		290 Old Montauk Hwy	closed
Second House Tavern	Bar		161 Second House Rd	closed
The Boneyard	Café	Coffee	541 E Lake Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	33	29	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	33	30	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	40	35	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	44	39	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1998	44	37	25	8	4	6	NAICS1997
1999	43	35	24	7	4	6	NAICS1997
2000	43	34	25	6	3	7	NAICS1997
2001	40	34	26	5	3	5	NAICS1997
2002	42	37	30	5	2	4	NAICS1997
2003	45	40	30	7	3	5	NAICS2002
2004	41	37	30	5	2	3	NAICS2002
2005	45	41	27	10	4	4	NAICS2002
2006	41	37	28	7	2	4	NAICS2002
2007	43	38	26	10	2	4	NAICS2002
2008	47	44	30	12	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	47	46	32	12	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	46	44	32	10	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	44	42	32	9	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	52	47	34	11	2	3	NAICS2012
2013	55	50	35	11	4	3	NAICS2012
2014	58	51	33	13	5	4	NAICS2012
2015	53	47	32	11	4	4	NAICS2012
2016	56	47	31	11	5	4	NAICS2012
2017	53	46	28	12	6	4	NAICS2017
2018	56	48	28	15	5	4	NAICS2017
2019	62	54	30	17	7	4	NAICS2017
2020	56	48	26	16	6	5	NAICS2017
2021	68	60	33	19	8	5	NAICS2017
2022	67	58	33	18	7	4	NAICS2022
2023	62	53	30	17	6	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11954. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.