BMIE Market 11963

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,390 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,066 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,613 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±419 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,622 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,628 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$127,746 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,287 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	52.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,969 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±749 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,208,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±96,451 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	33 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11963
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	37.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+26.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+32.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	37 (range 32–42) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.23) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	36 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11963. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.23, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.2	78	40%	+31.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.4	54	35%	+19.1
Market Momentum Score	36.2	36	25%	+9.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,390	68	40%	+27.3
Median household income (ACS)	127,746	92	40%	+37.0
Households (ACS)	3,613	70	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	35%	+18.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	39.3	14	25%	+3.4
Population (ACS)	8,390	68	20%	+13.6
Median household income (ACS)	127,746	92	20%	+18.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	30%	+16.2
20-year restaurant growth	26.9	50	20%	+10.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 12 · Coffee 9 · Italian 9 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Thai 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 38 · Bar 7 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Babe's Sag Harbor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Breakfast	51 Division St	open
Back Page Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	62 Division St	open
Barons Cove	Restaurant (service type not stated)		29 Terry Dr	open
Barons Cove in Sag Harbor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Bay Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1742 Bridgehampton-Sag Harbor Tpke	open
Beacon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	8 W Water St	open
Bell & Anchor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	3253 Noyack Rd	open
Big Olaf	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	Wharf St	open
BuddhaBerry	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies	125 Main St	open
Canio's Cultural Cafe	Café	Coffee	Old Whalers Church, 44 Union St	open
Cappelletti Restaurant and Take Out	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	3284 Noyack Rd	open
Cilantro's Mexican Takeout	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	138 Division St	open
Cluckman's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Chicken / wings · American	22 Long Island Ave	open
Corner Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1 Main St	open
Cove Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	283 Main St	open
Dockside Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	26 Bay St	open
DOPO La Spiaggia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	6 Bay St	open
Doppio East	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	126 Main St	open
Dreamy Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	PO Box 2069	open
Espresso Da Asporto	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2 Main St	open
Espresso Italian Market & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	184 Division St	open
Estia's Little Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1615 Bhampton Sag Harbor Tpke	open
Goldberg's Famous Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	111 Main St	open
Grindstone Coffee & Donuts	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	7 Main St	open
Harbor Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1 Bay St	open
Il Capuccino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	30 Madison St	open
Jack's Stir Brew Coffee Jack's Stir Brew Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	117 Main St	open
Jacks Coffee Vi Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		51 Division St	open
JLX Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16 Main St	open
K Pasa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2 Main St	open
Kidd Squid Sag Harbor	Brewery / taproom · Bar		11 Spring St	open
Lil' Birdie	Restaurant (service type not stated)		51 Division St	open
LT Burger Sag Harbor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	62 Main St	open
M.J. Dowlings Steakhouse & Tavern	Bar	Steakhouse · American	3360 Noyac Rd	open
Murf's Backstreet Tavern	Bar		64 Division St	open
Muse in the Harbor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	16 Main St	open
New Paradise Cafe	Café	Coffee	126 Main St Long Island	open
Nikki's Not Dog Stand	Food truck · Quick service	American	51 Division St	open
Noyac Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	3348 Noyack Rd	open
Phao	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	62 Main St	open
Pineneck Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3360 Noyac Rd	open
Red Thread Good Coffee Bar	Coffee shop	Coffee	103 Main St	open
Ruby Murrays	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	51 Division St	open
Sag Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	103 Main St	open
Sagtown Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	78 Main St	open
Sen Sen Restaurant & Coffee - 36 Trần Phú	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	23 Main St	open
Sing City	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	22 W Water St	open
South Fork Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	Business Office: By Appointment Only, 3333 Noyack Rd	open
The Golden Pear Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	111 Main St	open
Tip Top Hospitality Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 Main St	open
Tutto Il Giorno Tutto il Giorno	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Thai · Italian	5 Bay Ave	open
Tutto il Giorno Sag Tutto il Giorno	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mediterranean	16 Main St	open
Vin Sur Vingt Bistro Vin Sur Vingt	Bar	French	29 Main St	open
Wolffer Estate Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		29 Main St	open
Wölffer Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	29 Main St	open
비키세요	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza · American	126 Main St	open
Sag Harbor Baking Co	Bakery	Bakery	51 Division St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	26	25	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	24	23	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	27	26	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	27	26	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	26	23	16	6	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	25	21	15	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	26	22	17	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	22	19	14	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	28	24	20	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	30	26	20	4	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	28	25	20	3	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	26	23	18	3	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	25	20	16	2	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	28	22	17	3	2	3	NAICS2002
2008	26	22	16	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	28	23	17	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	30	25	18	5	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	30	27	17	8	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	31	29	17	8	4	1	NAICS2012
2013	32	30	19	7	4	1	NAICS2012
2014	32	30	18	7	5	1	NAICS2012
2015	32	29	17	7	5	1	NAICS2012
2016	36	31	18	7	6	2	NAICS2012
2017	38	36	20	8	8	—	NAICS2017
2018	38	36	19	9	8	—	NAICS2017
2019	40	36	20	9	7	3	NAICS2017
2020	35	33	20	7	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	34	32	19	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	35	33	20	7	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	36	33	22	5	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11963. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11964	3.4 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.