BMIE Market 12118

Saratoga County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,069 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,114 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,651 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±421 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,897 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,296 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$92,710 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,732 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,122 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±61 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$345,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,964 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12118
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+20.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12118. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.9	78	40%	+31.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.6	58	35%	+20.2
Market Momentum Score	17.4	17	25%	+4.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,069	79	40%	+31.5
Median household income (ACS)	92,710	76	40%	+30.3
Households (ACS)	7,651	81	20%	+16.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	35%	+5.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.0	84	25%	+21.1
Population (ACS)	17,069	79	20%	+15.7
Median household income (ACS)	92,710	76	20%	+15.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	50%	+10.2
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	30%	+4.9
20-year restaurant growth	-25	12	20%	+2.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

Pizza 8 · Coffee 5 · American 4 · Italian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 7 · Quick service 5 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Băng Keo chống thấm - x2000 Nhật Bản18	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		17 Johnson Rd	open
Barb's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	74 Avenue C	open
BJ Farms	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian	30 N Central Ave	open
Bubbles Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	150 S Central Ave	open
Bucciero's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	96 N Main St	open
Danny DeVito's Lounge and Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		168 Saratoga Ave	open
Dominos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1 Price Chopper Plz	open
Doms Pizza Subs & Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	107 Hudson Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	16 S Central Ave	open
Faldoni's Delicatessen and Catering Company	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	116 Park Ave	open
Golden Krust Bagels Cafe	Café	Coffee	205 Park Ave	open
Hank Hudson Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		17 Johnson Rd	open
I Love NY PIZZA Malta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2374 Route 9	open
Inferno Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2374 Route 9	open
Lucca's Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	55 Saratoga Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1 Park Plaza	open
Mechanicville House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	35 Park Ave	open
Mike's Cajun Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	168 Saratoga Ave	open
Oriental Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	219 Park Ave	open
Our Place Bar & Grill	Bar		46 Route 146	open
Park Avenue Confectionary & General Store	Dessert	Dessert	223 Park Ave	open
Pedlar Distributing Co	Winery / distillery / taproom · Dessert		1000 Broadway	open
PPP Lounge & Sportsbook	Bar		9 Malta Drive	open
Sub King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	110 Park Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	15 Park Plaza Park Ave	open
The End Zone Sports Pub and Restaurant	Bar · Casual dining		227 Park Ave	open
The Sugar Fairy Bakes Llc Mechanicville	Bakery	Bakery	205 Park Ave	open
The Ugly Rooster Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	312 N 3rd Ave	open
Tony's Of Mechanicville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	42 Saratoga Ave	open
Undeniable Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	44 North Main St	open
Vincenzos Pizza Shop Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2374 Route 9	open
Wolf's 111 Arena Sports Grill	Casual dining · Bar		50 Stone Crest Dr	open
Yummy Yummy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6 Price Chopper Plz	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	10	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	15	10	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	17	11	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	14	11	6	5	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	16	13	7	6	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	15	11	5	6	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	15	11	6	5	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	19	14	5	8	1	4	NAICS1997
2003	20	16	6	9	1	3	NAICS2002
2004	22	19	9	9	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	21	18	7	10	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	18	17	7	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	16	8	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	15	6	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	18	17	8	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	18	18	8	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	5	9	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	5	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	5	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	14	6	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	18	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12118. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12151	3.2 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.