BMIE Market 12184

Columbia County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,787 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±460 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,971 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±250 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,148 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,105 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,622 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,497 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,086 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±99 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$355,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,001 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	39.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12184
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.08) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	52 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12184. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.08, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.2	72	40%	+28.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.5	55	35%	+19.1
Market Momentum Score	51.6	52	25%	+12.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,787	67	40%	+26.8
Median household income (ACS)	98,622	80	40%	+32.0
Households (ACS)	2,971	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.4	51	25%	+12.8
Population (ACS)	7,787	67	20%	+13.4
Median household income (ACS)	98,622	80	20%	+16.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.1	66	50%	+33.2
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	9.1	39	20%	+7.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 5 · Mexican 4 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bagel Tyme	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	1004 Kinderhook St	open
Blue Moon Chocolate & Gifts	Dessert	Dessert	3048 Main St	open
Columbia Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Mexican	3333 RT-9H	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3366 Rt 9H	open
Filli's Deli and Jersey Baking	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	3019 Main St	open
Harvest Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3074 US Highway 9	open
Harvest Spirits Farm Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3074 US Highway 9	open
Heel’s Kitchen & Creamery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3321 US Highway 9	open
Kings Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2967 US-9	open
La Bella Valatie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2967 US Highway 9	open
Magdalena's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3018 Main St	open
Main Street Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3032 Main St	open
Mark's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3017 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2939 US-9	open
OK Social	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3321 US-9	open
Okenny's Express	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3321 US Highway 9	open
Pizza Inn Pizza Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	2960 US Highway 9	open
Reifenberg Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		3021 Main St	open
Robert's Restaurant	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Coffee	1048 US Highway 9	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1048 Kinderhook St Suite 1	open
Tequila Sunrise Restaurant & Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1009 Kinderhook St	open
The Sandwich Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	3019 Main St	open
Valatie Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		3011 Main St	open
Valatie Products Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2939 US Highway 9	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	2	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	12	6	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	15	13	8	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	18	15	9	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	20	18	11	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	17	15	9	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	15	13	8	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	8	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	14	7	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	13	7	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	15	9	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12184. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12130	1.5 mi	1	2006
12132	3.7 mi	1	2001
12106	3.8 mi	7	2023
12115	4.2 mi	—
12136	4.5 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.