BMIE Market 12446

Ulster County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,414 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±669 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,393 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±319 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,061 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,776 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$85,979 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,111 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,303 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±218 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$295,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44,215 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	67.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12446
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+140.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+140.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+140.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.84) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	93 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12446. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.84, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.1	65	40%	+26.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.5	68	35%	+23.6
Market Momentum Score	93.0	93	25%	+23.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,414	62	40%	+24.7
Median household income (ACS)	85,979	69	40%	+27.6
Households (ACS)	2,393	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	140	95	35%	+33.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.2	32	25%	+8.0
Population (ACS)	5,414	62	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	85,979	69	20%	+13.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	71.4	94	50%	+46.8
10-year restaurant growth	140	95	30%	+28.6
20-year restaurant growth	140	88	20%	+17.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 4 · BBQ 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Banner Tire Systems	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6550 Route 209	open
BjornQorn	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Bucky's	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		3 Samsonville Rd	open
Cancelliere Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6320 Route 209	open
Casa Amigos Mexican Kitchen & Cantina (Kerhonkson)	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	6508 US-209	open
Deli To Go	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	6122 US-209	open
Don Juan Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6508 Route 209	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		6101 NY Rt 209	open
Flying Goose Tavern	Bar		323 Main St	open
Hudson Valley Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1210 Berme Rd	open
Kerhonkson Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6315 Route 209	open
Mill & Main Restaurant & Provisions	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	317-319 Main St	open
Outpost BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	6611 Route 209	open
Outpost BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6 Samsonville Rd	open
Rough Cut Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		5945 US-44	open
Sleeping Giant Ice Cream Company	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3 Sunset Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Sugar Brook Maple Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		351 Samsonville Rd	open
The Gander Inn Restaurant & Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6508 Route 209	open
Vaccaro's Pizza Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5981 Route 44 55	open
Yang's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chinese	6314 Route 209	open
Mill & Main	Coffee shop	Coffee	1210 Berme Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	6	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	7	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	8	7	7	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	8	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	8	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	9	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12446. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12489	3.2 mi	1	2012
12404	4.5 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.