BMIE Market 12484

Ulster County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,155 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±424 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,331 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±211 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,733 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,376 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$119,779 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,230 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$467,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73,483 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12484
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	32.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 10–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	52 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12484. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.1	68	40%	+27.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.7	50	35%	+17.4
Market Momentum Score	51.6	52	25%	+12.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,155	53	40%	+21.2
Median household income (ACS)	119,779	90	40%	+36.1
Households (ACS)	1,331	54	20%	+10.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	35%	+18.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	44.4	12	25%	+2.9
Population (ACS)	3,155	53	20%	+10.6
Median household income (ACS)	119,779	90	20%	+18.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	30%	+15.6
20-year restaurant growth	75	76	20%	+15.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

Coffee 6 · American 4 · Asian 3 · Chinese 3 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Dessert 2 · Japanese 2 · Mexican 2 · Sushi 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Café 5 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 2 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Asia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese · Chinese	3407 Cooper St	open
Asis Restaurant in Stone Ridge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	3407 Cooper St	open
Bennys Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3835 US-209	open
Black Dot	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3669 Main St	open
Blackboard Bistro	Café · Coffee shop	Breakfast · Coffee	491 Cottekill Rd	open
Bodacious Bagels	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	3630 Main St	open
Butterfield	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3805 Main St	open
Cherries Roadside	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	4166 US-209	open
Chopsticks Shimla	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	3853 Main St	open
Hash	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	3928 Main St	open
Lydia's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	7 Old US-209	open
Mama's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3588 Main St	open
Ming Moon Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3855 Main St	open
Momiji Sushi and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3649 Main St	open
The Egg's Nest	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1300 NY Route 213	open
The Roost	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3542 Main St	open
Upstate Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4293 US-209	open
When's Lunch Hospitality Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4162 US Highway 209	open
Nibble Nook Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3542 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	3	—	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	2	1	3	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	2	1	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	1	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	4	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	12	8	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	9	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	14	8	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	13	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	12	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12484. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12419	3.8 mi	1	2010
12404	4.3 mi	4	2023
12461	4.9 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.