BMIE Market 12498

Ulster County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,572 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±385 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,421 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±246 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,851 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,162 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$94,210 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,810 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	62.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,680 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±325 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$627,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±66,938 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	27 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12498
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	39.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+35.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+107.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	31 (range 26–35) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.68) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	81 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12498. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.68, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.1	67	40%	+26.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.9	58	35%	+20.3
Market Momentum Score	80.8	81	25%	+20.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,572	59	40%	+23.6
Median household income (ACS)	94,210	77	40%	+30.8
Households (ACS)	2,421	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	59.1	8	25%	+2.0
Population (ACS)	4,572	59	20%	+11.8
Median household income (ACS)	94,210	77	20%	+15.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	35	86	50%	+43.1
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (61)

By cuisine

American 12 · Coffee 8 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 6 · Italian 4 · Mexican 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Pizza 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegan 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 33 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 12 · Café 8 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 6 · Coffee shop 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Quick service 3 · Fast casual 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A & P Bar	Bar		83 Mill Hill Rd Ste A	open
Abandoned Hard Cider - Woodstock Outpost	Winery / distillery / taproom		1802 State Route 28	open
Alba's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	138 Tinker St	open
Allison’s Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	51 Tinker St	open
Bazar Specialties Of Woodstock Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		21 Mill Hill Rd	open
Blue Mountain Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1633 Glasco Tpke	open
Bread Alone - Woodstock Bread Alone Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	22 Mill Hill Rd	open
Cafe Espresso Seventeen Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17 Tinker St	open
Caffe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	83 Mill Hill Rd	open
Catskill Mountain Pizza Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	51 Mill Hill Rd	open
Commune Saloon	Casual dining · Bar		297 Tinker St	open
Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	109 Mill Hill Rd	open
Early Terrible Woodstock	Bar		45 Mill Hill Rd	open
EJ Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	2 Old Forge Rd	open
Fruition Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert	17 Tinker St	open
Garden Cafe on the Green	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	6 Old Forge Rd	open
Garden Cafe Woodstock	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Coffee	6 Old Forge Rd	open
Good Night	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	15 Rock City Rd	open
Harley's Sweet Spot	Dessert	Dessert	32 Mill Hill Rd	open
Hudson Valley Edible Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Tinker St	open
Joshua's Cafe	Café	Coffee	51 Tinker St	open
Little Apple	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	21 Tinker St	open
Little Deep	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Maria's Bazar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		21 Mill Hill Rd	open
Medo	Restaurant (service type not stated)		83 Mill Hill Rd Ste A	open
Millstream	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	114 Mill Hill Rd	open
Moonrise Bagels Woodstock	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	68 Tinker St	open
Nana's Take Out Cafe & Sweetery	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	98 Mill Hill Rd	open
Nancy's of Woodstock Artisanal Creamery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	297 Tinker St	open
Nirvana Indian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	4 Deming St	open
Oriole 9	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	17 Tinker St	open
Overlook Bakery	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	105 Tinker St	open
Peace, Love & Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	59 Tinker St	open
Pearl Moon Woodstock	Bar	American	52 Mill Hill Rd	open
Provisions	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	65 Tinker St	open
Reynolds & Reynolds	Bar		104 Mill Hill Rd	open
Ruth's Country Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	138 Tinker St	open
Santa Fe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1802 NY-28	open
Sharkie's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Casual dining · Bar	Sandwiches	43 Tinker St	open
Shindig Woodstock	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Tinker St	open
Silvia	Bar	American	42 Mill Hill Rd	open
Station Bar & Curio	Bar		101 Tinker St	open
Sweet Dreams Organic Ice Cream	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	74 Tinker St	open
Taco Juan's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	31 Tinker St	open
The Bear Café	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	295b Tinker St	open
The Bear Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	295 Tinker St	open
The Gypsy Wolf Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)		261 Tinker St	open
The Little Bear	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	295 Tinker St # B	open
The Tea Shop	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	7 Maple Ln	open
The Woodstock Pub	Bar · Casual dining	American	17 Mill Hill Rd	open
Tinker Street Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		297 Tinker St	open
Tinker Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	54 Tinker St	open
Upstate Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Fast casual	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	75 Mill Hill Rd	open
Woodstock Clubhouse	Casual dining · Bar		114 Mill Hill Rd	open
Woodstock Feast	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	174 Tinker St	open
Woodstock Pizza Theater	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	138 Tinker St	open
Woodstock Shave Ice	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	14 Mill Hill Rd	open
Yum Yum Noodle Bar Yum Yum Noodle Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Noodles / ramen / pho	4 Rock City Rd	open
Yum Yum Restaurant Group, Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4 Rock City Rd	open
A&amp P Bar, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		83 Mill Hill Rd	closed
Jane's Homemade Ice Cream	Dessert	Dessert	31 Tinker St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	18	16	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	21	20	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	21	17	12	5	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	19	17	12	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	20	18	12	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	18	15	11	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	18	17	10	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	18	18	12	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	21	21	13	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	19	18	11	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	22	20	13	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	17	11	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	18	12	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	18	17	14	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	20	19	14	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	17	17	13	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	16	14	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	18	16	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	18	15	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	20	20	15	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	19	15	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	24	20	15	4	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	26	20	14	4	—	6	NAICS2017
2019	26	20	13	4	3	6	NAICS2017
2020	26	19	13	4	—	7	NAICS2017
2021	31	23	16	4	3	8	NAICS2017
2022	36	28	21	4	3	8	NAICS2022
2023	33	27	19	4	4	6	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12498. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12409	2.9 mi	2	2016
12433	3.6 mi	1	1994

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.