BMIE Market 12522

Dutchess County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,959 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±825 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±300 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,172 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,369 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$76,157 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,176 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,351 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±331 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$301,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40,839 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	37.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12522
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+80.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.13) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12522. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.13, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	58.9	59	40%	+23.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.2	46	35%	+16.2
Market Momentum Score	69.2	69	25%	+17.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,959	60	40%	+24.1
Median household income (ACS)	76,157	57	40%	+22.7
Households (ACS)	1,900	60	20%	+12.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.2	42	25%	+10.6
Population (ACS)	4,959	60	20%	+12.1
Median household income (ACS)	76,157	57	20%	+11.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	28.6	83	50%	+41.3
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	125	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

Dessert 3 · American 2 · Coffee 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ana's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Latin American (other)	3237 NY-22	open
Bi Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	RR 22	open
Dover Stone Church Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		Route 22	open
Dunkin Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	3 Dover Furnace Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3 Dover Village Plz	open
Four Brothers Pizza Inn Pizza Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3189 NY-22	open
Freshco 22	Delivery-focused · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3156 NY-22	open
Kelly’s Creamery & Kelly's Husband's Truck	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · American	3202 NY-22	open
Kerry's Fudge	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)		227 Sand Hill Rd	open
La Cazuela	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3081 NY-22	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3078 RT-22	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	Route 22	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	6	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	7	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	9	4	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12522. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12594	4.4 mi	6	2023
12585	4.8 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.