BMIE Market 12538
Dutchess County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 14,391 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±858 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 5,368 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±384 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 14,578 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 5,674 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $86,230 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,776 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 39.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,232 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±116 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $322,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,584 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 25.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12538 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 19.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +4.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -3.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +38.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 24 (range 21–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 48 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12538. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 73.2 | 73 | 40% | +29.3 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 47.8 | 48 | 35% | +16.7 |
| Market Momentum Score | 48.3 | 48 | 25% | +12.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 14,391 | 76 | 40% | +30.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 86,230 | 69 | 40% | +27.8 |
| Households (ACS) | 5,368 | 75 | 20% | +15.1 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -3.9 | 22 | 35% | +7.5 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 17.4 | 45 | 25% | +11.2 |
| Population (ACS) | 14,391 | 76 | 20% | +15.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 86,230 | 69 | 20% | +13.9 |
Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 4.2 | 61 | 50% | +30.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -3.9 | 22 | 30% | +6.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 38.9 | 58 | 20% | +11.5 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (56)
By cuisine
American 10 · Italian 7 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 6 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Mexican 3 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · European 2 · Japanese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sushi 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 34 · Bar 8 · Quick service 7 · Dessert 6 · Café 5 · Casual dining 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amber Lantern Tavern | Bar | 556 Violet Ave | open | |
| American Bounty Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 1946 Campus Dr | open |
| Antonella's Restautant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 4246 Albany Post Rd #1700 | open |
| Apple Pie Bakery Cafe | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee | 1946 Campus Dr | open |
| Carole's HotDogs | Food truck | Hot dogs · American | 2 St Andrews Rd | open |
| China Wok | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 3999 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Coppola's Coppola's Ristorante | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 4167 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Cozy Boba Tea | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Coffee | 3999 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Cranberry's At Tilley Hall | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea | 1 W Market St | open |
| Cranberrys Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1 W Market St | open | |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers | 4164 Albany Post Rd 4164 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Darby O'Gills | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | British / Irish pub food | 3969 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Dassai Blue Sake Brewery | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 5 St Andrews Rd | open | |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 4274 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Dunkin Donuts & Baskin Robbins | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert | 4269 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Dunkin' | Coffee shop | Coffee | 3979 Albany Post Rd | open |
| El Guacamole | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 4290 Albany Post Rd | open |
| El Rey Mexican Eatery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 4285 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Emy Delights & Bites | Dessert | Dessert | 4322 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Eveready Diner | Casual dining | American | 4184 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Friends And Family Senior Companionship, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4327 Albany Post Rd | open | |
| Georgie O's | Bar | 787 Violet Ave | open | |
| Great wall | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 4290 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Hoofbeats International | Bar | 101 Cary Rd | open | |
| Hung Far Ii | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 870 Violet Ave Ste 6 | open |
| Hyde Bar | Bar | 547 Violet Ave | open | |
| Hyde Park Brewing | Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4076 Albany Post Rd | open | |
| Hyde Park Pizza & Gyros | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Mediterranean · Greek | 4290 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Jasper Cafe | Café | Coffee | 4283 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Joe Cristiano's Pizza Joe Cristiano's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1225 RT-9G | open |
| Joseph's Italian Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · Italian · American | 728 Violet Ave | open |
| Julian's Deli & Market | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · Breakfast | 1574 RT-9G | open |
| K & D Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 848 Violet Ave | open |
| Koller's Lair | Bar | 64 W Dorsey Ln | open | |
| KT Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi | 4283 Albany Post Rd | open |
| La Catrina Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 4076 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Lady K's Southern Comfort | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 870 Violet Ave | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 566 Albany Post Road | open |
| Mizu Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 4246 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Nana's Ice Cream & Grill | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 864 Violet Ave | open |
| One Stop Deli Market | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1574 NY-9G | open |
| Post Road Brew House at The Culinary Institute of America | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1946 Campus Dr | open |
| Ready Sip Go | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 815 Violet Ave | open |
| Ristorante Caterina de’ Medici | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · European | 1946 Campus Dr | open |
| Ronzoni | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 960 Violet Ave | open |
| St. Andrew's Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1946 Campus Dr | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 3969 Albany Post Rd | open |
| T'n'F Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 600 Violet Ave | open |
| The Bocuse Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | French · European | 1946 Campus Dr | open |
| The Brewery at the CIA | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 1995 Campus Dr | open | |
| The Storyteller | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 25 Old Vineyard Pl | open |
| Town 'n Country Diner Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4184 Albany Post Rd | open | |
| Uncle Sam's Canteen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 4079 Albany Post Rd | open |
| VanRoy's Caribbean Grill | Catering | Caribbean | 4390 US-9 | open |
| Yogurt Berry | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 4290 Albany Post Rd | open |
| Coco's Pizza Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3957 Albany Post Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 15 | 15 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 20 | 20 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 18 | 18 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 21 | 20 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 18 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 19 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 19 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 17 | 16 | 8 | 8 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 9 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 20 | 19 | 9 | 9 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 20 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 21 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 23 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 26 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 29 | 28 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 32 | 31 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 30 | 29 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 27 | 26 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 28 | 27 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 25 | 24 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 26 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 30 | 26 | 11 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 28 | 24 | 10 | 12 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 31 | 26 | 11 | 13 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 34 | 28 | 10 | 14 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 28 | 23 | 10 | 10 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 30 | 25 | 11 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 30 | 25 | 11 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |